Markets kicked off the second half of the year with a fresh batch of economic data, political headlines, and policy clues that kept traders on their toes.
From stronger-than-expected global PMIs to Powell’s cautious tone and oil’s rebound, the session offered no shortage of signals for those watching central banks and risk sentiment.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- New Zealand NZIER business confidence for Q2: 22.0% (6.0% forecast; 19.0% previous)
- Australia S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 50.6 (51.0 forecast; 51.0 previous)
- Japan Tankan large manufacturers index for June 30: 13.0 (10.0 forecast; 12.0 previous); Non-manufacturing index for June 30: 34.0 (34.0 forecast; 35.0 previous)
- Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI final for June: 50.1 (50.4 forecast; 49.4 previous)
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI for June: 50.4 (49.2 forecast; 48.3 previous)
- Swiss procure.ch manufacturing PMI for June: 49.6 (43.8 forecast; 42.1 previous)
- Germany unemployment rate for June: 6.3% (6.3% forecast; 6.3% previous)
- Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June: 49.0 (49.0 forecast; 48.3 previous)
- Euro Area ECB consumer inflation expectations for May: 2.8% (3.2% forecast; 3.1% previous)
- Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June: 49.5 (49.4 forecast; 49.4 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 47.7 (47.7 forecast; 46.4 previous)
- ECB member Luis de Guindos said EUR/USD’s advance beyond 1.2000 would be “complicated”
- Euro Area consumer price index growth rate flash for June: 2.0% y/y (2.0% y/y forecast; 1.9% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
- U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 52.9 (52.0 forecast; 52.0 previous)
- USD edged higher as June ISM Manufacturing PMI reflected slower contraction
- U.S. JOLTs job openings for May: 7.77M (7.1M forecast; 7.39M previous)
- U.S. Dallas Fed services index for June: -4.4 (-9.0 forecast; -10.1 previous)
- Fed Chair Powell doesn’t rule out rate cuts this month, but thinks “the prudent thing to do is to wait and see” tariff effects
- BOJ Gov. Ueda said underlying inflation is still “somewhat below” the central bank’s 2% target
- ECB President Lagarde repeats non-commitment to a rate path, said ECB to decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis
- API: U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending June 27: +680K (-2.2M forecast, -4.28M previous)
- US Senate passes Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, setting up House battle
- U.S. President Trump says he won’t extend July 9 trade deadline, expresses doubt on Japan deal
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Equities split pretty hard on Tuesday as traders ditched Big Tech in favor of the old-school cyclical names. The Dow climbed 0.9% to a four-month high, but the Nasdaq wasn’t so lucky, sliding 0.8%. Over in Europe, markets were a mixed bag. Germany’s DAX dropped 1% as manufacturers got jittery ahead of that July 9 tariff deadline, while the FTSE 100 in London inched up 0.3%.
Gold kept riding its hot streak, jumping 1.3% to $3,340 as the dollar softened and concerns flared up over the massive $3.3 trillion fiscal package that just cleared the U.S. Senate. Add in Powell refusing to shut down talk of a July rate cut, and the yellow metal had plenty of fuel. Treasuries took it all in stride, with 10-year yields ticking up to 4.25% after job openings surprised higher at 7.77 million.
Crude oil rose 0.5% to $65.50 ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to bump output by 411,000 barrels a day. Bitcoin didn’t get the memo, slipping 2.1% to $105,600 as risk-off vibes hit tech and speculative assets, even though the broader market tone stayed firm.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar had a choppy Tuesday, kicking off the month with some typical volatility. It got an early lift in Asia thanks to positioning flows, but that faded fast once Europe stepped in. Traders there were on edge over Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending plan and the lack of progress ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
Then came the turnaround. Solid U.S. data hit the wires with ISM manufacturing ticking up to 49.0 and job openings jumping to 7.77 million. That gave the dollar a solid boost, but the rally ran out of steam after the Senate officially passed the fiscal bill. Traders paused to think about what adding $3.3 trillion in debt really means. Momentum faded even more heading into the London close.
By the end of the day, the Greenback finished mixed. It edged higher against the Loonie, which was dealing with shaky oil prices, but slipped against the yen as BOJ hike talk picked up on the back of strong Tankan numbers. The euro mostly held steady with the ECB sticking to its dovish playbook, while Sterling inched up as falling UK house prices didn’t shake confidence in the BOE’s cautious stance.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- ECB Guindos speech at 8:00 am GMT
- Euro Area unemployment rate for May at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Area ECB Lane speech at 10:30 am GMT
- U.S. MBA mortgage applications & 30-year mortgage rate for June 27 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger job cuts for June at 11:30 am GMT
- U.S. ADP national employment report for June at 12:15 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June at 1:30 pm GMT
- ECB President Lagarde speech at 2:15 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for June 27 at 2:30 pm GMT
- Australia S&P Global services PMI final for June at 11:00 pm GMT
European session traders will watch unemployment data and speeches from ECB officials for clues on the central bank’s next move, with any dovish tones likely weighing on the euro.
In the U.S., all eyes are on the ADP jobs report and EIA crude inventories, which could move the dollar and oil-linked currencies depending on how they shape Fed rate cut expectations.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
