Markets had a mixed day as traders reacted to weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, new trade headlines, and fresh concerns about U.S. and U.K. government spending.
Stocks and Bitcoin climbed, gold gained on Fed rate cut expectations, and oil jumped after Iran cut ties with nuclear inspectors.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- New Zealand NZIER business confidence for June 30: 22.0% (6.0% forecast; 19.0% previous)
- New Zealand building permits for May: 10.4% m/m (-1.8% m/m forecast; -15.6% m/m previous)
- Australia S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June
- Japan Tankan large manufacturers index for June 30: 13.0 (10.0 forecast; 12.0 previous); Non-manufacturer index at 34.0 (34.0 forecast; 35.0 previous)
- Australia retail sales for May: 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous)
- Australia building permits prel for May: 3.2% m/m (5.2% m/m forecast; -5.7% m/m previous)
- Australia private house approvals prel for May: 0.5% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 3.1% m/m previous)
- Iran’s President orders country to suspend cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog IAEA
- U.K. bond prices and GBP tumbled after Finance Minister Reeves appeared visibly distressed following the government’s scaled-back plans to cut benefits
- Euro Area unemployment rate for May: 6.3% (6.2% forecast; 6.2% previous)
- U.S. Challenger job cuts for June: 48.0k (110.0k forecast; 93.82k previous)
- U.S. Dollar Dips on ADP Surprise, Recovers as Traders Wait for NFP
- U.S. President Trump announced preliminary trade deal with Vietnam
- Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June: 45.6 (47.2 forecast; 46.1 previous)
- U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for June 27: 3.85M (-5.84M previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Markets delivered mixed signals Wednesday as investors digested a flurry of developments ahead of Thursday’s critical jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a fresh record at 6,227 while the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 20,393, both recovering from Tuesday’s weakness. European equities also pushed higher with Germany’s DAX adding 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 jumping 1.2%, though London’s FTSE 100 lagged with just a 0.1% gain as UK fiscal concerns weighed on sentiment.
Gold climbed 0.6% to $3,360 as weak ADP employment data fueled rate cut expectations and highlighted safe haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.29% as fiscal worries mounted following Senate passage of Trump’s tax bill.
WTI crude surged 3.1% to $67.45 after Iran suspended cooperation with nuclear inspectors, raising supply disruption fears despite bearish inventory data showing gasoline demand at just 8.6 million barrels daily. Bitcoin rallied 3.5% to $109,000, riding the risk-on wave from the Vietnam trade deal announcement and correlating with tech strength as investors positioned for potential Fed easing while monitoring the approaching July 9 tariff deadline.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar started firm during Asian hours, possibly as traders squared up ahead of Thursday’s key payrolls report. The Greenback even pushed higher in early European trading, with the dollar index hitting a session peak near 97.15.
But things flipped fast after a rough ADP read showing a surprise loss of 33,000 jobs. That ugly print knocked the wind out of the dollar. EUR/USD jumped from 1.1755 to 1.1800 in a snap, while USD/JPY slipped below 143.50.
The dollar tried to claw back some ground, but the pressure came back around the London close when Trump rolled out the Vietnam trade deal. The lopsided setup – forcing Vietnam to slap on 20% tariffs while giving the U.S. a free pass – spooked investors who feared it might become the playbook for future deals, putting global trade and the U.S. economy on edge as the July 9 deadline creeps closer.
Sterling was the punching bag of the day, dropping almost 1% to 1.3634 after Chancellor Reeves broke down in Parliament over the government’s U-turn on welfare reform. That moment rattled confidence in the UK’s finances and sent gilts lower. Despite some late-session wobbles, the dollar still closed stronger against most majors, including EUR, JPY, GBP, and NZD. Only AUD and CAD managed to hold their ground.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Swiss consumer price index for June at 6:30 am GMT
- Germany HCOB services PMI final for June at 7:55 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB services PMI final for June at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global services PMI final for June at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro Area ECB monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30 am GMT
- Canada balance of trade for May at 12:30 pm GMT
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U.S. NFP reports
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. unemployment rate for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. average hourly earnings for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims for June 28 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global services PMI final for June at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. factory orders for May at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM services business activity for June at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. factory orders ex transportation for May at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Bostic speech at 3:00 pm GMT
- Japan household spending for May at 11:30 pm GMT
The European session could see some action from final services PMIs and the ECB meeting minutes, especially if they hint at diverging policy paths or economic surprises.
But the real fireworks are expected in the U.S. session, where a flood of labor data led by nonfarm payrolls could either fuel or derail Fed rate cut expectations, setting the tone for dollar demand.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
