The spotlight remained fixed on tariffs headlines for the most part of the day, as Trump later on suggested targeting semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports next.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar chalked up some decent moves of its own after the RBA announced a surprise policy decision.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Japan Bank Lending for June 2025: 2.8% y/y (2.4% y/y forecast; 2.4% y/y previous)
- Japan Current Account for May 2025: 3,436.4B (3,000.0B forecast; 2,258.0B previous)
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato clarified that there have been no FX rate discussions with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent
- Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated that there has been no trade deal with the U.S. since they are seeking an agreement that benefits both countries after Trump announced 25% tariffs
- White House confirmed that Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs deadline to August 1
- During press conference, Trump said the deadline is firm but he is “open to other ideas” and may adjust tariffs on other countries
- Trump also mentioned that they may send more weapons to Ukraine and that talks with Iran have been scheduled
- Australia NAB Business Confidence for June 2025: 5.0 (-5.0 forecast; 2.0 previous)
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep rates on hold at 3.85% instead of cutting to 3.60%
- During press conference, RBA Governor Bullock emphasized it is appropriate to have cautious, gradual stance on easing and that they “want to be sure on inflation”
- Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook for June 2025: 45.9 (45.0 forecast; 44.8 previous)
- Germany Balance of Trade for May 2025: 18.4B (16.0B forecast; 14.6B previous)
- Germany Imports for May 2025: -3.8% m/m (-1.2% m/m forecast; 3.9% m/m previous)
- Germany Exports for May 2025: -1.4% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; -1.7% m/m previous)
- France Balance of Trade for May 2025: -7.8B (-6.1B forecast; -8.0B previous)
- German Finance Minister warned that EU may fire back if it cannot reach a trade deal with U.S.
- U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index for June 2025: 98.6 (99.0 forecast; 98.8 previous)
- Canada Ivey PMI s.a for June 2025: 53.3 (49.0 forecast; 48.9 previous)
- U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations for June 2025: 3.0% (3.2% forecast; 3.2% previous)
- President Trump declared they will be imposing semiconductor tariffs soon, 50% tariffs on copper
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Tariffs updates were front and center for the most part of the trading day, as Asian markets had a mixed reaction to additional uncertainty from Trump’s remarks about the August 1 deadline being firm but “subject to negotiations.”
Risk assets tossed and turned, with WTI crude oil initially staying on the back foot due a cloudier global trade outlook and resurfacing fears of supply chain disruptions. The commodity soon turned higher a few hours into the London session, as geopolitical troubles appeared to draw focus, extending its gains after Trump reiterated during a White House event that he is “not happy with Putin” and that they are considering sending more weapons to Ukraine.
Equity indices were elevated but continued to tread carefully, likely finding some support on cautious optimism that trade deals with other countries could be made soon. However, U.S. stock indices ended the day either flat or with marginal losses after a late rebound, as investors digested the potential impact of higher semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs.
Gold, on the other hand, gradually shed some of its safe-haven gains during the Asian and London sessions, before staging a sharp tumble as U.S. markets opened. Treasury yields, which had a steady climb early in the day on tariffs news, moved mostly sideways during New York market hours before edging slightly lower before the session ended.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar started the day on the back foot, following more remarks from White House officials and President Trump himself emphasizing more tariffs letters to be sent out in the coming days. USD/JPY, however, bucked the trend when Trump indicated 25% tariffs on Japan and Prime Minister Ishiba confirmed that no deal has been reached with the U.S. yet.
AUD/USD enjoyed a sharp rally after the RBA refrained from cutting interest rates to 3.60%, citing that they’d “want to be sure on inflation” and that it is still appropriate to maintain a gradual and cautious approach to easing.
The USD selloff appeared to find a bottom as European markets opened, leading AUD/USD to move sideways while the rest of the majors returned recent gains to the dollar and more as U.S. session traders joined in. However, USD rallies peaked during Trump’s speech in a White House event when he mentioned higher tariffs on semiconductors, copper and pharmaceuticals soon.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Machine Tool Orders at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. BoE Financial Stability Report at 9:30 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Lane Speech at 10:45 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Guindos Speech at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Mortgage Applications at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. Wholesale Inventories at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. FOMC Minutes at 6:00 pm GMT
- New Zealand Visitor Arrivals at 10:45 pm GMT
- U.K. RICS House Price Balance at 11:01 pm GMT
- Japan Producer Prices Index Growth Rate at 11:50 pm GMT
Market players are likely biting their nails ahead of today’s big event, which is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. After all, the transcript of their June huddle is likely to provide more clues on the timing of future policy changes, so look out for additional USD volatility and major swings in market sentiment.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
