Financial markets dealt with a fresh round of tariffs announcements and threats of countermeasures, after Trump slapped higher trade levies on Brazil and Sri Lanka.
Meanwhile, the OPEC downgrade on global demand forecasts for the next years weighed heavily on crude oil prices. Oh, and did we mention that bitcoin struck fresh record highs at $116K?
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazil and 30% on Sri Lanka
- Trump also confirmed 50% tariffs on copper effective August 1
- New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for May 2025: 6.1% y/y (15.8% y/y forecast; 18.8% y/y previous)
- U.K. RICS House Price Balance for June 2025: -7.0% (-10.0% forecast; -8.0% previous)
- Japan Producer Prices Index Growth Rate for June 2025: 2.9% y/y (3.0% y/y forecast; 3.2% y/y previous); -0.2% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous)
- OPEC slashed global oil demand forecasts in latest outlook report, citing weaker consumption in China
- Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Growth Rate Final for June 2025: 0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous); 2.0% y/y (2.0% y/y forecast; 2.1% y/y previous)
- Germany Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Final for June 2025: 0.0% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.0% y/y (2.0% y/y forecast; 2.1% y/y previous)
- ECB official Villeroy acknowledged that growth remains slow but positive in France
- European Commission President von der Leyen said they are “working non-stop” to keep U.S. tariffs as low as possible and that they will do what is necessary to strengthen global trade ties
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for July 5, 2025: 227.0k (245.0k forecast; 233.0k previous)
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FOMC officials mostly supportive of rate cuts soon:
- Fed official Musalem: Inflation likely to tick higher moving forward due to latest tariffs
- Fed official Waller: Tariffs increase price pressures temporarily, impact is “not zero but not large either” so restrictive policy rate can still come down
- Fed official Daly also noted that it may be time to think about adjusting interest rates since economy is in a good place, possible rate cuts in fall
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Some risk-off flows came in play during Asian market hours, as investors faced the aftermath of Trump’s announcement of higher tariffs on Brazil and Sri Lanka, plus his confirmation of 50% tariffs on copper imports.
Safe-haven gold was elevated for the most part of the session and in the first few hours of the London session, before a bit of dollar strength returned on stronger than expected U.S. initial jobless claims. However, commentary from Fed officials Musalem and Waller hinting at more interest rate cuts sooner or later allowed the precious metal to stay in positive territory.
Treasury yields also returned earlier safe-haven gains when the U.S. dollar retreated, as Fed policymakers suggested that restrictive interest rates can soon come down. U.S. equity indices closed higher for the second day in a row, as the possibility of looser monetary policy could lift spending and investment down the line.
WTI crude oil, which also tried to rake in some gains early in the day, suffered a selloff when the OPEC released its latest outlook report and revealed downgrades in demand forecasts for the next few years due to weaker consumption trends in China.
Bitcoin was moving sideways in the Asian and London sessions before it picked up on bullish vibes during U.S. market hours and proceeded to bust through the $112K mark to trade at fresh all-time highs.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The U.S. currency started the day on the back foot against its counterparts, as the latest round of tariffs announcements and threats of countermeasures from U.S. trade partners appeared to stoke the “Sell America” sentiment.
Still, the dollar managed to pull higher halfway into the session against its lower-yielding rivals while still edging lower against the Aussie and Kiwi, before a broad USD rally took place a few hours into the London session.
Stronger than expected U.S. initial jobless claims data allowed the Greenback to sustain its climb as U.S. markets opened. Rallies peaked when Fed officials started discussing the possibility of lowering interest rates soon, given how the economy is in solid standing while inflationary pressures continue to tick higher due to more tariffs.
By session’s end, USD closed mixed as it sunk deeper in negative territory versus AUD (-0.72%) and NZD (-0.60%) while staying in the black against JPY (+0.24%), EUR (+0.19%) and CHF (+0.14%).
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Germany Wholesale Prices at 6:00 am GMT
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U.K. GDP at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Goods Trade Balance at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Industrial Production at 6:00 am GMT
- France CPI Growth Rate Final at 6:45 am GMTT
- Swiss Consumer Confidence at 7:00 am GMT
- U.K. NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker at 12:00 pm GMT
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Canada Employment Change at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada Unemployment Rate at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada Average Hourly Wages at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada Building Permits at 12:30 pm GMT
- Germany Current Account at 12:45 pm GMT
- U.S. Monthly Budget Statement at 6:00 pm GMT
We’ve got a couple of top-tier reports on today’s docket, namely the monthly U.K. GDP release and Canada’s June employment figures that could spur additional volatility for GBP and CAD pairs during the London and New York sessions, respectively.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
