OPEC+ Is likely to raise oil output quotas for August by 188K BPD.

Reuters is reporting that OPEC+ is likely to raise oil output quotas for August by 188K BPD. OPEC+ will meet on Sunday.

The increase would continue OPEC+’s gradual monthly unwinding of its voluntary production cuts. Assuming the group sticks with another 188,000 bpd increase for August, it would remain on track to restore the remaining voluntary cuts over the coming months.

For oil prices, the focus will likely shift away from the headline quota increase and toward:

• Whether actual production can rise by the full amount.
• Compliance from members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.
• Global demand expectations.
• Geopolitical risks and any supply disruptions.

The price of crude oil has fallen to a new cycle low of $68.22, its lowest level since the Iran conflict began. For perspective, WTI settled at $67.28 on February 27, the day before the conflict started on February 28, underscoring how much of the geopolitical risk premium has now been unwound.

At the retail level, however, gasoline prices have not declined nearly as much. The latest AAA national average for regular gasoline is $3.84 per gallon, compared with roughly $2.98 around the start of the conflict. President Trump has repeatedly called on the retail gasoline industry to pass lower crude prices through to consumers more quickly, making lower gasoline prices a key part of his economic agenda. By comparison, the national average at the end of President Biden’s term was about $3.11 per gallon, leaving pump prices still above that level despite the recent slide in crude oil.

From a technical perspective, sellers remain in control. To shift the near-term bias back toward the buyers, crude first needs to reclaim the 100-hour moving average at $70.13. Beyond that, the 200-hour moving average at $71.89 and the 200-day moving average at $73.91 represent increasingly important resistance levels. Until those barriers are broken and sustained, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.