Author: FX

The NZDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA this week but above the 200-day MA (green line) into the mid-week RBNZ rate decision. The central bank cut rates by 50 basis points and that sent the pair below the 61.8% but buyers came in against the 61.8% retracement. The subsequent bounce off the low on Wednesday saw the price move back to the 200-day MA where sellers leaned, putting a lid on the pair. There was one last move lower which took out the 61.8% and the low for the week, but quickly failed.That led to a run back…

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Mexican Peso strengthens for the second consecutive day as traders increase the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut to 85.9%. Banxico minutes confirm economic slowdown, reinforcing the view that less restrictive policy is needed as Mexican industrial production contracts. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data supports disinflation, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment weakens, and inflation expectations rise. The Mexican Peso registers gains against the Greenback for the second consecutive day after hitting a low of 19.61 in early trading on Thursday. A tranche of economic data in the United States (US) reassured investors that the Federal Reserve…

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The Dow Jones climbed into an all-time peak on Friday. US PPI figures showed September producer-level inflation stayed flat overall. Upbeat bank earnings helped to further bolster equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose over 400 points bottom-to-top on Friday, bolstered into a fresh record high of 42,837 after US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures cooled in September. Cooling producer-level inflation plus upbeat bank earnings lifted equities across the board as the Dow Jones heads into a fifth straight winning week. US producer prices flattened in September, cooling to a flat 0.0% MoM compared to the expected 0.1%…

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JPMorgan stock sails ahead on an impressive Q3 showing. GAAP EPS arrives 10% above Wall Street consensus.  Revenue benefits from investment banking, wealth management fees. Traders focus on setting new all-time high.   JPMorgan (JPM) stock surged over 5% on Friday after the nation’s largest bank released earnings that strongly beat consensus. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was released before the market open, and it was not the signal the market desired. The annual inflation figures for both headline and core PPI arrived above consensus. In the case of annual core PPI, inflation rose above the August figure, even…

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Notwithstanding concerns surrounding a wider Middle East war, which could disrupt oil flows from the region, China stimulus disappointment and OPEC+ producer plans to bring barrels back in the coming months have put the crude oil market at risk of a sharp correction. The pending surplus in early-2025, stemming from lackluster global demand and robust supply growth, may well see crude oil price trade significantly below current levels in 2025, TDS’ Head of Commodity Strategy Bart Melek notes OPEC+ production cuts may become unnecessary “The extension of the current OPEC+ production suppression regime, which features significant member overproduction, does not…

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For me, this is a more-important report than today’s jobs data.Business Outlook Survey indicator remains negative, signaling widespread softness” demand is weak, firms have excess capacity, and price growth continues to slow” but little deterioration since last quarterFirms reported weak past sales growth due to past inflation and interest rate increases continuing to weigh on the economy, particularly on consumers’ budgetsSales expectations remain softer than average but have improved slightly this quarter on rate cut hopes. Sales growth indicator to +13 from +1Labour shortages continue to ease, with few firms reporting challengesInvestment and hiring intentions remain weakInvestment spending +9 vs…

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USD/CAD surrenders some of its intraday gains after the US and Canada data. The Canadian employment data showed that job demand remained robust and the jobless rate decelerated. The US headline PPI remained flat, while the core producer inflation grew expectedly by 0.2% in September. The USD/CAD pair gives up some of its intraday gains after posting a fresh two-month high to near 1.3780 in Friday’s New York session. The Loonie asset surrenders some gains after the release of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Canadian Employment data for September. The initial reaction after the data…

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Forex traders who want to be consistently profitable know the importance of tracking the rights and wrongs of the trades that they take. Unfortunately, the impact of the trades that they DON’T take is too often overlooked. Traders are no strangers to missing good trade opportunities. At one point or another we’ve encountered setups that we didn’t take even though they so clearly fit our biases and strategies. All too often, those missed trades also tend to be winners. There are plenty of reasons why we fail to catch good pips. Steve, for example, could have chosen to stay in…

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