Author: FX

US Dollar depreciates as investors digest inflation data. Fed rate cut expectations rise following dovish comments. On the data front, Consumer Confidence improves slightly in early September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, is posting losses on Friday as markets continue digesting this week’s inflation data. At the end of the week, there was a slight increase in expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 bps in the next week’s meeting. The US economy remains robust, with growth exceeding expectations. However, financial markets may be…

Chair Powell preparing for a BIG cut?To cut, or not to cut 50 basis points.As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, JP Morgan reiterates its call for a 50 basis point cut, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Following Nick Timiraos’ article highlighting the Fed’s predicament, market odds have shifted from 20-80 to a nearly even 50-50 split.Former Fed members Dudley and Mester have publicly weighed in, with Mester open to a 50 basis point cut and Dudley explicitly supporting it. While the Fed is in a blackout period, market observers wonder if “friends and old family members” might…

The Dow Jones is grinding its way back into record bids on Friday. US markets are leaning firmly into bets of a 50 bps cut from the Fed. Mixed US sentiment figures keep investor sentiment on the high side. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied for a third straight day on Friday, climbing around 350 points and coming within reach of record highs above 41,500 as market sentiment tilts further into rate cut hopes. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in a 45% chance of an initial 50 bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed)…

For very good reason the market is preoccupied by the potential policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes. Risk of EUR/USD dips back to 1.10 “In July, market expectations regarding a possible September rate cut from the Fed began to firm up.  Consequently, since the start of that month the USD has underperformed all other G10 currencies. There are country specific factors which have impacted some of the other G10 currencies in this period and lent them support vs. the USD. The BoJ hiked rates in late July and has maintained a hawkish bias…

The negative outlook remains, RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum. The multiple rejections by the 20-day SMA suggest that the buyer’s traction is too weak. A break from above mentioned average would improve the outlook. In Friday’s session, the EUR/GBP pair fell slightly by 0.15% to 0.8435, showcasing a negative technical outlook. Bears continue to drive the pair lower, reinforcing the overall bearish trend while buyers continue to struggle to conquer the 20-day Simple Moving Average.. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, within negative territory, with a mildly declining slope, signifying weakening buying momentum. The Moving Average…

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Climbs above 1.3100 as Fed rate cut speculation intensifies The GBP/USD edges higher during the North American session, registering gains of over 0.18%, due to increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve could cut rates by 50 basis points next week. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3147 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3114. Read More… Pound Sterling gains as soft US PPI reaffirms debate over Fed rate cut size The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises to near 1.3150 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s North American session. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) falls sharply after…

Prior month 67.9University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.0 versus 68.5 estimate.Current conditions 62.9 versus 61.5 estimate. Last month 61.3expectations and 73.0 versus 71.0 estimate. Last month 72.1.1-yesr inflation expectations 2.7% versus 2.8% last month.Five year inflation expectations 3.1% versus 3.0% prior month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source link

Listening to ECB President Christine Lagarde, one gets the impression that a further ECB interest rate hike as early as October is highly unlikely. Of course, Lagarde is not ruling anything out. And why should she? She has nothing to gain from limiting her options. Observers who still lament the lack of forward guidance have not understood what is different today from the days when interest rates were stuck at the lower bound, Commerzbank’s FX Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Considerable gap between the current EUR/USD level and 1.14 “Yesterday’s communication did sound very much like…

GoodLifeStudio/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ:UPWK) rose 3% in premarket trading after a report that activist investor Engine Capital accumulated a 4% stake in the freelance marketplace. The activist is pushing for Upwork (UPWK) to change its board, according to a CNBC report on Friday, which cited a letter that the activist wrote to Upwork’s board. Engine highlighted that Upwork (UPWK) has underperformed its closest peer Fiverr (FVRR) and should work to simplify its platform, reduce costs and grow its enterprise business. Upwork (UPWK) didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. Upwork (UPWK) shares have plunged 37%…

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning potential Fed decisions.The probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting stand now around 43% and a total of 115 bps of easing by year-end. For the BoJ, the market sees a 100% probability of no…