Author: FX
HSBC Asset Management reports a significant increase in yields on long-dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as of January 2026. This surge is attributed to rising concerns regarding Japan’s medium-term fiscal outlook, particularly with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of substantial spending plans ahead of the upcoming general election.Rising yields signal fiscal unease”A pick-up in yields on long-dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in January turned into a surge last week. It follows growing nervousness over Japan’s medium-term fiscal outlook, with PM Sanae Takaichi signalling big spending plans ahead of next month’s general election.””Japan’s government debt to GDP ratio has declined in…
Japan says in close coordination with US on forex as yen intervention risks mount Source link
Last Friday delivered a stark reminder that in currency markets, words can move billions of dollars faster than any actual transaction. The Japanese yen surged 1.75% in a single day—its sharpest rally since August—after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted “rate checks” with financial institutions about yen exchange rates. The move sent a clear signal: authorities are watching, and they’re prepared to act. A Yen Slide Meets Government Pushback Rate checks are the currency market’s equivalent of a warning shot. When the New York Fed starts calling banks to ask about exchange rates, traders know intervention may be…
Prior was -10.9Production +11.2 vs -3.0 priorNew orders +11.8 vs -6.6 priorCapex +7.1 vs -4.6 priorEmployment +8.2 vs -1.4 priorOutlook +2.9 vs -12.3 priorThis is a nice improvement with rebounds across the main metrics. New orders, in particular, look strong.Comments in the report. I find the one about transshipment and customs fraud to be particularly pertinent. I’ve been writing about for awhile: There is widespread customs fraud because the whole system isn’t built for tariffs, it was built to counteract contraband smuggling and there’s nowhere near enough hiring to inspect cargoes and paperwork. It’s basically run on the honor system.Beverage…
Silver (XAG/USD) continues its spectacular rally at the start of the week, trading around $109.50 at the time of writing, up 6.90% on the day. The white metal earlier touched a new record high at $110.90, benefiting from an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment that favors safe-haven assets.Risk aversion remains driven by mounting concerns surrounding the United States (US). Repeated trade threats from the US administration, growing risks of a budget shutdown and questions over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are reviving fears about a deterioration in the economic and institutional framework. In this context, investors are turning to…
Prior 87.6Current conditions 85.7 vs 86.0 expectedPrior 85.6Expectations 89.5 vs 90.3 expectedPrior 89.7German business sentiment stagnates to start the year with the expectations/outlook index dropping a little. The current conditions shows a marginal improvement but it’s nothing optimistic and doesn’t really suggest a material betterment in business activity. As price pressures continue to hold higher, that’s biting at the overall economy.The manufacturing sector also remains on edge, still in recession territory, and that’s offsetting any positive momentum from the services sector. That has been the case for well over a year now in Germany.Meanwhile, employment conditions are also starting to…
Silver (XAG/USD) prolongs its recent well-established uptrend and continues scaling new all-time peaks for the third straight day, rising to the 109.45 region on Monday. The white metal sticks to bullish bias through the early European session and currently trades around mid-$108.00s, up nearly 6% for the day.Last week’s breakout through the $96.00 horizontal barrier and a subsequent move beyond the $100 psychological mark were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bulls. Moreover, the ascending channel from $70.60 supports the uptrend, and the upper boundary at $107.13 has been breached, signaling an extension of the advance.The Moving Average Convergence…
The Schaff Trend Cycle is a momentum-based oscillator developed by Doug Schaff in the 1990s. Unlike simple moving average crossovers or basic momentum tools, the STC incorporates exponential moving averages (EMAs) with a proprietary cycle component. The result is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100, with key levels at 25 and 75. Think of it as an enhanced MACD that’s been run through an additional smoothing filter. The indicator displays as a single line that traders watch for crossovers above or below these threshold levels. When the STC line crosses above 25, it signals potential bullish momentum. A…
Bitcoin has been in selloff mode again, but bulls could have an opportunity to charge as price tests the bottom of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. Or will we see a break lower and further downside for BTC/USD? Better keep close tabs on these inflection points! Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour Chart by TradingView The crypto mood has soured again in the previous week, as bitcoin struggled to catch a bid despite risk flows in both directions. BTC/USD lost ground early on while risk-off flows picked up on tariffs-related geopolitical tensions then proceeded to extend its decline even as risk-taking…
AUD/CHF has been forming higher lows and higher highs connected by an uptrend channel on its 4-hour chart. Is another bounce off support in the works? Check out these nearby inflection points! AUD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView The market mood saw a huge improvement last week after Trump backpedaled on military action in Greenland and higher tariffs on European nations, prompting a de-escalation relief rally that lifted the Aussie while weighing on the safe-haven franc. AUD/CHF carried on with its climb to test the top of its ascending channel, retreating early this week on a bit of profit-taking. Can…