Author: FX

SPX weekly chartA strong gap higher at the open quickly turned into a day of disappointment for bulls. After surging nearly 50 points in early trading to hit 5860, sellers stepped in and methodically unwound those gains throughout the session. The late morning and early afternoon saw particularly steady selling pressure, though buyers did attempt to defend the 5820 level multiple times. A late-day drift lower saw the index ultimately close down just 2 points, a round trip that essentially erased virtually all of the day’s moves. The weak close despite the strong open could be a warning sign for…

The New York Times released a poll today showing Trump and Harris deadlocked. That’s bad news for the Harris campaign as she had previously been leading. Combined with betting odds shifting in Trump’s favor and it’s starting to feel like we’ve hit a tipping point.The bond market has been selling off steadily today, which reads like a Trump trade. At the same time, the stock market has been selling off steadily after opening higher and is down on the week.So what gives? Surely there are some people making election bets but real money knows better. Elections are very tough to…

AI imageThe Fed blackout starts at midnight but the week ahead is packed with market-moving data, decisions and earnings reports.Here’s a day-by-day preview of the week ahead:MONDAY, OCTOBER 28US data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activityUK: Lloyds Business BarometerJapan: Jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratioECB’s Wunsch speaksEarnings: Ford, Waste ManagementUS Treasury Quarterly borrowing estimates, 2yr ($69bn) and 5yr ($70bn) note auctionsTUESDAY, OCTOBER 29:US: JOLTS job openings, Conference Board consumer confidence (98.7 prior)UK: Consumer credit, M4 money supplyGermany: GfK consumer confidence Tech earnings: Alphabet (Google), AMDOthers: McDonald’s, Pfizer, BP, Visa, PayPalWEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30 Big data day:US: Q3 GDP first reading, ADP employmentEurozone: Q3 GDPGermany: CPI,…

Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocksThere’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watchingEffect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our inflation forecastIf population growth slows faster than assumed, headline GDP will be lower than assumedThe Canadian government announced 20% lower immigration targets yesterday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source link

A report in the WSJ could cool the crypto market.DOJ and Treasury investigating Tether over potential sanctions violations and illicit activityManhattan US attorneys leading criminal probe into possible links to drugs, terrorism, hackingTreasury mulling sanctions against world’s most traded crypto ($190B daily volume)Comes as Tether steps up compliance, recently froze 1,850 wallets worth $114MInvestigation examining if stablecoin used to evade sanctions by Hamas, Russian arms dealersTether strongly denies allegations, says working with law enforcementCantor Fitzgerald manages $80B+ of Tether’s Treasury holdingsFollows $4.3B Binance settlement and previous $61M regulatory fineBitcoin is down 2.5% to $66,450 today and is under pressure on…

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, a series of crucial decisions and economic data releases that could sway market dynamics are expected on Monday, October 28, 2024. The day’s lineup includes important Treasury note auctions and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, which will provide insights into regional economic conditions. Major Economic Events to Watch Other Important Economic Events to Watch • 12:00 PM ET: 2-Year Note Auction (Previous: 3.520%) • 12:00 PM ET: 5-Year Note Auction (Previous: 3.519%) Other Economic Events to Watch • 9:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Previous: -9.0) • 10:30…

gold dailyGold is impressive once again today as it rises $8 to $2743 after earlier falling as low as $2717. The rebound virtually assures that it will break the weekly closing record of $2719 set just a week ago. It’s been record after record for gold and on Wednesday it touched the best-ever at $2758 before a round of profit taking. I spoke with Kitco News about gold this week and highlighted a number of trends behind the rally. The election is top of mind at the moment but both candidates promise to antagonize trading partners and rivals. This week’s…

As the November 5 US presidential election approaches, Credit Agricole analyzes the potential impacts on the US dollar, noting improving odds for a Donald Trump victory and the subsequent market reactions.Key Points:The rising likelihood of a Donald Trump win has led to renewed interest in “Trump trades,” contributing to a rally in the USD.The key considerations for FX investors are the extent of the potential USD gains from a Trump victory versus the possible downside if Kamala Harris wins.Despite the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, FX Positioning data indicates that investors are not heavily long on the USD.Recent USD…

Pair trades sideways within a narrow range, indicating indecisive market sentiment. RSI suggests increasing selling pressure, while MACD signals weakening bullish momentum. The pair remains below the 20-day SMA, indicating a bearish bias in the short term EUR/GBP continues to trade within a constricted range, with limited price movements in recent sessions. The pair currently trades near 0.8340 having faced resistance at the 20-day SMA, maintaining a neutral bias.  Analyzing the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 45, suggesting increasing selling pressure. The MACD, while still in positive territory, is decreasing, indicating weakening buying momentum. This…

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Climbs to three-day peak, approaches 1.3000 The Pound Sterling recovered some ground and traded at around three-day highs of 1.2998 yet remained unable to crack the 1.3000 figure at the time of writing. Market mood has improved slightly, a headwind for Greenback, which, despite that, is headed to sustain weekly gains of more than 0.50%. Read More… Pound Sterling gains further on BoE Mann’s hawkish remarks The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises further near the psychological resistance of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s New York session. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar extends its correction after the…