Author: FX

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% in July. That’s the highest since February 2022! However, components of the report actually point to a stronger labor market for the month: A net of 58.2K jobs were added (vs. 20.2K expected) and June’s net additions were revised higher from 50.2K to 52.3K The labor force participation rate jumped from 66.90% to a record high of 67.10% Full-time employment rose by 60.5K while part-time jobs decreased by 2.3K Monthly hours worked for all jobs increased by 0.2% m/m higher from…

The RBNZ took the spotlight early in the day with a surprise rate cut, but data releases from the U.K. and the U.S. soon drew attention to other market themes. How did your favorite assets trade on Wednesday? Let’s discuss the major headlines: Headlines: RBNZ surprised the markets with a 25bps rate cut and hinted at further interest rate reductions Japan PM Fumio Kishida announced that he won’t be seeking re-election as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party this September U.K. inflation rose from 2.0% y/y to 2.2% y/y, its first acceleration since December; Core CPI eased from 3.5%…

Imagine navigating a dense fog. You can’t see far ahead, but you can still make informed decisions based on the faint outlines of landmarks and the direction of the wind. Similarly, probability meters in trading don’t predict the future with absolute certainty. Instead, they analyze historical data and technical indicators to estimate the likelihood of price movements in a particular direction. This probabilistic approach stands in contrast to traditional technical analysis, which often focuses on identifying clear-cut entry and exit points. But the market, as we all know, is rarely so black and white. Probability meters acknowledge this inherent uncertainty,…

I posted earlier on the view from Nomura, looking for a December 2024 rate hike from the Bank of Japan, even if inflation doesn;t rise!Nomura say around 150 is now the ceiling for USD/JPY. Forecast a BOJ rate hike in DecemberSnippet from Barclays, a contrasting view, saying the Bank needs to see higher inflation feeding through:Its likely that the BoJ will need to wait until at least the December meeting to confirm “that the next wave of service price markups is reflected on the nationwide CPI data” … Barclays expect wage pressure will move inflation higher next BoJ rate hike…

The New Zealand Dollar weakens in Thursday’s early Asian session.  RBNZ’s dovish stance continues to undermine the Kiwi.  Investors await the US data for fresh impetus, including Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains on the defensive on Thursday. The dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) after a surprise rate cut on Wednesday has exerted selling pressure on the Kiwi as the easing cycle came much sooner than expected.Nonetheless, further confirmation of the downward path of US inflation has triggered the expectation of a Federal Reserve (Fed)…

The U.S. dollar weakened today against major currencies as inflation showed signs of easing, which further supported the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 2.9% annually, just 0.1% below June’s rate. This decrease was in line with market forecasts and marked the first time the CPI has fallen below 3% since March 2021. This suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may be easing. The Fed has been working to control inflation, which has been running above its target rate of 2% for some time. Yesterday’s lower-than-expected PPI …

Third Point adds new Apple stake, sheds Marvell Technology among Q2 buys/sells Source link

By Gerry Doyle SINGAPORE (Reuters) – A study released Monday using data from NASA’s Mars InSight lander shows evidence of liquid water far below the surface of the fourth planet, advancing the search for life there and showing what might have happened to Mars’ ancient oceans. The lander, which has been on the Red Planet since 2018, measured seismic data over four years, examining how quakes shook the ground and determining what materials or substances were beneath the surface. Based on that data, the researchers found liquid water was most likely present deep beneath the lander. Water is considered essential…

Oil was impressive on Monday but it was driven by a few factors:Data showing net positioning extremely bearishMiddle Eastern war worriesOPEC demand data stronger than fearedThat led to a jump higher in crude to the best levels since July 22 but since then, global growth worries have crept back into crude, sapping it back to unchanged on the week. WTI crude settled lower by $1.37 to $76.98 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source link

The Mexican Peso chalked in a second day of gains against the Greenback on Wednesday. Mexico’s recent rate cut despite an uptick in inflation has left Peso markets in a bind. US CPI figures cooled to expected levels, but investors were hoping for more post-PPI. The Mexican Peso (MXN) found extra room on the high side on Wednesday, bolstered by a lopsided US Dollar (USD) after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures cooled to the expected levels. However, markets were hoping for firmer signs of easing inflation pressure after this week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a steeper-than-expected…