Author: FX
Oil surged toward multi-year highs as the U.S.-Iran conflict paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, making the Canadian dollar the week’s standout winner and the euro its biggest loser. Source link
The major US stock indices are closing lower with the broader indices down over 1.3% and the Dow 30, down -0.95%. Looking at the closing levels:Dow industrial average -453.19 points or -0.95% at 47501.55S&P index -90.69 points or -1.33% at 6740.02.NASDAQ index -361.31 points or -1.59% at 22387.68.Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks -60.27 points or – 2.33% at 2525.30.For the trading week: Dow industrial average fell -3.01%. S&P index fell -2.02%.NASDAQ index fell -1.24%Russell 2000 index fell -4.06%Here’s a summary of the some of the week’s biggest losers:The Carnage at a Glance It was a brutal week across the board,…
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH has traded higher as Iran-related geopolitical tensions support the Dollar. Beijing has been setting a stronger CNY fix, which has helped stabilise the Renminbi and partially offset broader Asian FX softness. However, persistent USD strength and weaker risk sentiment could force even stronger fixes to counter near-term depreciation pressures, with upside levels highlighted.Geopolitics and fixing strategy guide pair”USD/CNH traded higher overnight as geopolitical conflict in Iran showed little signs of de-escalation. The fixing pattern this week saw a slight pick-up in setting a stronger RMB fix, with 30d rolling…
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved lower early in the US session but did fins support buyers near a swing area between 1.15422 and 1.15549. The low price bottomed off the level and bounced to the 100 hour MA where the price is settling into the weekend. That MA will be the barometer for buyers and sellers in the new week.GBPUSD: GBPUSD held support at an upward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart earlier today and then pushed higher, breaking above the 100-hour moving average and holding above it into the New York afternoon session. That move gives buyers something to build on…
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, through Associate Economist Jester Koh, judges that Singapore’s GDP exposure to the Middle East conflict is modest under a short-lived shock scenario. Exports to key regional economies are about 2% of total exports, and UOB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, while flagging potential secondary demand effects via weaker global consumption and investment.Growth impact seen as contained for now”We assess the direct impact on Singapore’s GDP growth from the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict to be limited at this juncture, assuming the conflict stays heightened only for a short period…
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes a sharp divergence between CNY forwards and spot, suggesting hedge unwinding alongside asset outflows. CNY has outperformed peers, yet the bank questions its safe haven role as spot flows show large outflows tied to expatriation. PBoC officials reiterate they will not use depreciation for competitiveness and aim to keep the renminbi broadly stable.Forward strength versus spot outflows”CNY has strongly outperformed its peers, but we also struggle to see a strong case for how the currency can serve as a safe haven.””The past two days have seen very large outflows, and this…
The USD/CHF pair retreats on Friday during the North American session, down 0.53% as the Greenback weakens following a dismal jobs report, and a break to four day low beneath the 0.7800 figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7771, yet it remains to end the week with gains of more than 1%.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe technical picture shows USD/CHF remaining downward biased as the pair failed to clear 0.7800, opening the door for further downside. Momentum has begun to shift slightly negatively, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), about to clear its neutral…
Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland, said that inflation is too high, adding that inflationary pressures are broad-based at the United States (US) Monetary Policy Forum in New York City on Friday.Key quotes:Inflation is ‘too high,’ pressures are broad based.Fed rate policy likely on hold for quite some time.Fed policy is in good position to navigate inflation, job challenges.Remains committed to meeting Fed’s job, inflation mandates.Inflation problem is broader than just tariffs.It would take a lot to dethrone dollar’s global role.Not hearing from contacts notable move away from dollar.Stablecoins could bolster demand for dollar.Euro still…
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that USD/MYR is consolidating near recent highs after an early-week run-up, supported by broader USD strength and soggy risk sentiment. Geopolitical headlines around Iran and energy markets are seen as key drivers. They warn that further escalation could trigger risk-off flows, weakening high-beta Asian FX including MYR, with clear resistance and support levels outlined.High-beta MYR vulnerable to risk-off flows”USD/MYR. Consolidation near recent highs. USD/MYR consolidated this week after the run-up in early week. Combination of USD strength, soggy risk sentiments weighed on Asian FX, including MYR.””For now, geopolitical headlines dominate and…
The Middle East crisis has escalated into an all-out war after the US and Israel assassinated the Supreme Leader of Iran on February 28. Iran not only targeted Israel but also attacked United States (US) military bases around the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by Iranian forces, cutting off Asia’s primary source of oil. As demand for safety skyrocketed, the biggest beneficiary was not who you are guessing; it was the Greenback, which took investors’ focus away from the bright metal as the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around the 99.70 price region during the week,…