Author: FX
About 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister told the world today that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open again, someone dumped 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures between 1224 and 1225 GMT. That’s roughly $760 million worth of short exposure, placed with impeccable timing right ahead of an announcement that cratered crude by as much as 11% on the day.Pretty good trade. Suspiciously good. And not the first time during this conflict.On April 7, another ~$950 million short hit the tape just hours before the US and Iran announced their two-week ceasefire. Go back to March 23 and you’ll…
The S&P 500 is at the highs of the day, up 1.45%, or 102 points to 7143. That’s a record high as well and more than a 10% gain from the March 30 low.It’s been an incredible rally and the latest leg higher came after Trump told AFP that there are no sticking points in the Iran deal.Back in March I highlighted six things I expected to be the TACO trades if peace was reached:1) Short oil2) Oil offshoots – airlines, transports, some consumer-sensitive stocks. I highlighted cruise ships in particular.3) Disinflation and rate cuts4) Global stocks5) Short USD6) Gold,…
Nordea’s Henrik Unell maintains a constructive stance on the Swedish Krona, arguing that carry should be secondary to growth prospects and equity flows. After a war-driven spike in EUR/SEK and USD/SEK, improved sentiment, a steady Riksbank, and ongoing rotation from US to Swedish assets by households underpin expectations that SEK fundamentals will recover.Sentiment, Riksbank stance aid SEK”So far we haven´t changed the main story or the forecast for the SEK as the war has hopefully plateaued.””Now that investor sentiment has recovered, we expect that macro fundamentals will do the same.””The Riksbank will stay on hold for the rest of the…
U.S. markets have likely hit a bottom – analyst Source link
In her speech, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, assesses the current state of the global financial system against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shocks. She begins by acknowledging that while the system has shown remarkable resilience over the last six years, weathering a pandemic, wars, and energy crises, history teaches that financial stability is often undermined when optimism overrides caution. She credits much of this current stability to the structural reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis, particularly the increased capital and liquidity held by banks. However, she cautions that risk…
Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz highlights that the US Dollar (USD) was the third best-performing G10 currency, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outpaced it, pushing USD/CAD down to 1.37, reflecting relative CAD strength on the day. She also cites comments from Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc on resolving trade issues, including disputes over Canada’s supply-managed dairy sector, ahead of the USMCA review and upcoming talks in Mexico City.CAD leads G10 as pair slips”Higher oil prices yesterday supported higher US Treasury yields, with a slight steepening bias, with the 2 year closing up 1.2bp and the 10 year up 2.2bp.””USD was the third…
On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, “we are not there yet”However, it is definitely under considerationWe should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some timeIf Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy pricesWe estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels againThe push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipatedIt looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week…
From its all‑time high on October 29, 2025 at $212.19, Nvidia (NVDA) began a pullback to correct the cycle that started from the April 2025 low. The decline reached $164.27, where the stock completed the correction and turned higher with improving momentum. The advance from the March 30, 2026 low is developing as a five‑wave impulsive structure, and this supports the view that NVDA is preparing for a new record high. Wave 1 ended at $177.37. Wave 2 then pulled back and finished at $170.23, as shown on the 30‑minute chart.The stock has since progressed into wave 3, which subdivides…
The SEC eliminated the $25,000 Pattern Day Trader rule and replaced it with intraday margin standards. Learn what changed, who benefits, and what risks remain for retail traders. Source link
USD/CAD just broke through a key support zone! How much further can it fall before buyers step in for a more sustained bounce? Source link