Author: FX
Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs. The bank expects the pair to consolidate in a defined range rather than trend strongly in the near term.Range-bound outlook for USD/SGD”Looking ahead, the manufacturing outlook remains constructive.””We will get the advance Q2 GDP report in the next week or so.””It is expected to post a strong performance and even exceed Q1’s 6% yoy expansion, supported by a strong manufacturing sector and continued firm…
This was a holiday-shortened week that leaned dovish by the finish. Traders spent the first couple of days shoving the dollar around without much conviction, waiting on the catalysts that would set the tone. They got two. Midweek, Fed Chair Warsh told the Sintra forum that inflation risks had come down and refused to commit to a rate path, which softened the hawkish read markets had carried out of June and nudged tightening bets lower. Then Thursday’s jobs report landed a day early, ahead of the Independence Day break, and badly undershot, knocking those bets down further and sinking…
Societe Generale notes that stronger-than-expected China PMI data suggest slow but steady growth, reducing urgency for the PBoC to ease policy. The bank highlights that USD/CNY has fallen back below its 50-day moving average as Yuan strength reflects robust exports supported by the global AI boom. The report also points to a higher trade-weighted CEFTS RMB Index and firmer 10y CGB yields.Yuan strength backed by exports”China PMI signals slow growth but less urgency for the PBoC to ease: official manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 50.3 in June from 50.0 while non-manufacturing PMI surprisingly rose to 50.2 from 50.1.””The…
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains on Friday amid thin trading due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after a sharp decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at 161.30 after falling to a two-week low of 160.49 earlier in the Asian session.The Greenback weakened on Thursday after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report missed expectations, signaling that the labor market is cooling. Softer job creation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have less room to keep…
Silver (XAG/USD) prices reclaim the $60.00 mark for the second straight day on Friday, extending their weekly gains to over 5.50% and trading at $62.42 amid broader US Dollar weakness, pushing the white metal to an eight-day high of $62.89. Source link
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises by more than 1% on Friday as investors digest a softer-than-expected US jobs report, trimming hawkish bets despite higher inflation. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,174, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,121.Bullion rises as soft jobs data weighs on Dollar outlookOn Thursday, US Nonfarm Payrolls for June missed estimates by a large margin, coming in at 57K instead of 110 K. The Unemployment Rate edged lower, but mostly due to a lower participation rate, which hit 61.5, the lowest since March 2021.Immediately, the swaps market adjusted interest rate expectations of…
ABN AMRO’s Bill Diviney expects the US Dollar to weaken broadly but notes slightly less upside for EUR/USD after revising the bank’s ECB outlook and incorporating French and US election risks. With the ECB seen delivering one more hike and the Fed staying more dovish than markets, ABN AMRO now projects EUR/USD at 1.18 for 2026 and 1.23 for 2027.Euro gains tempered by election risks”We still expect the US dollar to weaken more broadly.””However, we have made a modest adjustment to our EUR/USD forecasts because of two developments.””Taken together, these factors point to slightly less upside for EUR/USD this year…
BOE seeks to hit inflation target without damaging outputMarket pricing puts the odds of a hike in November at roughly 50%. If oil stays down here the effects of the war should be unwound quickly so we will see where inflation lands by Q4.The pound is up 6 pips to 1.3352 today and these comments won’t move it. In other UK news, Andy Burnham announced that he will keep the triple lock. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link
British Pound holds weekly gains as Fed hike doubts deepenThe British Pound steadied against the US Dollar on Friday, but it is poised to end the week with gains of over 1% as investors turn skeptical that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September meeting. The GBP/USD consolidates at around 1.3350, unchanged. Read More…British Pound holds firm near 1.3380 amid broad-based US Dollar weaknessThe British Pound (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, on track for a 1.3% appreciation this week, its strongest weekly performance in three months. The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3370 with downside attempts limited, as the US…
Cereal and packaged food giant General Mills reported earnings this week and the read from the was unambiguous: the consumer is stressed, staying stressed, and the company is planning around it rather than hoping for a turn.The core messages is that they don’t assume any improvement.Dana McNabb (COO) laid it out directly: “What we are anticipating is that as we go into this new fiscal year, the consumer is going to continue to be pressured. And we do expect to see them continue to change their behavior because of that, being more deliberate in how and where they shop, buying…