Author: FX

New Zealand’s Q1 jobless rate dropped to 5.3%, lifting the Kiwi even as soft employment and wages signalled lingering slack. Source link

National Australia Bank now expects the RBA to hike again in June to 4.60%, arguing the central bank faces a compounding inflation shock it cannot afford to let run, with cuts pencilled in for H2 2027.Earlier:Summary:NAB revised its RBA call to a June hike, taking the cash rate to 4.60%, citing compounding inflation pressures from domestic capacity constraints and the Middle East conflict, according to the bank’s RBA Watch noteThe RBA Monetary Policy Board voted 8-1 to raise the cash rate to 4.35% at its May meeting, with the decision reflecting a clear preference to prioritise price stability, per NAB’s…

China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Wednesday.  AUD/USD reaction to China’s Services PMIThe Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD), edges slightly higher following the Chinese data, with AUD/USD gaining 0.66% on the day to 0.7230, as of writing. Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The…

The HH LL Indicator MT5 is a technical analysis tool that identifies and labels swing points in price movement. It scans the chart for peaks and troughs based on a lookback period you define, then marks them with labels: HH for higher highs, HL for higher lows, LH for lower highs, and LL for lower lows. This isn’t some magic formula. The indicator uses a simple but effective method: it compares the current swing point to the previous one. If the latest high is above the previous high, it gets marked as HH. If the latest low is above the…

Tuesday confirmed the ceasefire holds — but “intact” isn’t “resolved.” With ISM New Orders flashing and NFP approaching, the framework’s terminal scenario remains unset. Source link

There was a number of economic releases today story with trade data from the US and Canada. The U.S. trade balance for the latest month showed a deficit of -$60.1B, widening from the prior month’s -$57.3B, but coming in better than the -$60.9B estimate. The increase in the deficit was driven primarily by a larger goods trade gap of -$88.7B, which widened by $4.1B, even as the services surplus improved to $28.4B, up $1.6B from the previous month. On the flow side, exports rose to $320.9B (+2.0% / +$6.2B), but were outpaced by imports at $381.2B (+2.3% / +$8.7B), explaining…

Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, May 6:The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading with a neutral tone near the 98.50 area, supported by safe-haven demand and elevated US yields even after upbeat US data. Price action remains choppy amid shifting Middle East headlines. In the US, incoming data continues to show resilience. The JOLTS Job Openings edged down to 6.866 million from 6.922 million, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor demand while remaining consistent with a tight labor market. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 53.6, easing slightly from 54.0…

The USDCAD is down modestly on the day, slipping -0.07% after an early push higher failed to gain traction above key resistance. The pair briefly moved above its 100-hour moving average and into a swing area between 1.3620 and 1.36305, but the lack of follow-through opened the door for sellers to reassert control into the North American session.The price has since rotated back below that zone and is currently trading near 1.3613. Despite the downside bias, price action remains subdued, with a narrow 25-pip range on the day (1.3605 to 1.3630). That limited movement reflects a market still searching for…

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is slightly firmer with USD/CAD holding near prior ranges. A softer US Dollar (USD) and firmer risk appetite are seen as mildly supportive for the CAD, while fair value has shifted lower toward 1.3424. Technicals remain bearish, with focus on a move back toward the 1.35 area.CAD supported as fair value drops”The CAD is edging a little firmer in early trade here but spot is holding close to yesterday’s ranges. A somewhat softer USD and some potential firming in risk appetite should be mildly CAD-supportive in the short…

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote, its third straight hike, as the Middle East conflict fans inflation fears. Source link