Author: FX

United States President Donald Trump is on the wires on Good Friday, claiming on Truth Social that the US can easily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a fortune.With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP”Market reaction to the newsThe US Dollar trades marginally higher on the day, helped by an upbeat March Nonfarm Payrolls report, although thinned market conditions due to Easter Holidays keep it within familiar levels. Employment FAQs Labor market…

Something caught my attention on the daily chart of Rio Tinto (RIO) this week, and it wasn’t the sharp recovery off the recent lows, though that’s worth noting too. It was the trendline underneath all of it. This thing has been running since mid-2024, quietly doing its job, and every time I’ve come back to this chart over the past several months, it’s still there, intact, with price respecting it like a floor that means something.Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest mining and metals companies, extracting and processing iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium across some of the…

Trump posted this on Truth Social:With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMPTrump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of schedule. Today marks the end of the fifth week and now Trump is talking about “a little more time”. Officials have floated 2-3 more weeks but this sounds like he’s nudging the discourse towards something longer.The idea of ‘taking the oil’ is the sort of thing that…

ECARX Holdings GAAP EPS of -$0.20 misses by $0.21, revenue of $847.9M misses by $282.1M Source link

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) increased by 178K in March, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The figure marks a marked reversal from February’s 133K drop (revised from -92K) and came in well above market expectations for a 60K gain.Elsewhere in the report, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.3% (from 4.4%), while the Labor Force Participation Rate edged marginally lower to 61.9% from 62%. At the same time, wage pressures showed a slight downtick, with annual growth in Average Hourly Earnings easing to 3.5% (from 3.8%).” The change…

GBP/USD trades slightly higher in thin holiday trade ahead of US NFPThe British Pound (GBP) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as modest softness in the Greenback lends some support. However, price action remains subdued amid thin liquidity conditions due to the Good Friday holiday, with trading activity likely to pick up during the American session as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3234, after falling to a four-month low at 1.3159 earlier this week. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value…

Prior -92K (revised to -133K)Two-month net revision -7KJanuary was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4%. Unrounded unemployment 4.256%% vs 4.441% priorParticipation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.7% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +186K vs +70K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls +15K vs -5K expectedGovernment payrolls -8K vs -6K in Februarynonfarm payrollsSectors:Health care: +76K vs -28K priorConstruction: +26K vs -13K prior (revised from -11K)Social assistance: +14K vs +9K…

It’s the first Friday of the month and that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls. It’s a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down 17 points. Those will be two of the spots I’m watching in the aftermath of the release.Some quick reading:Why are non-farm payrolls being released on Good Friday? Here’s what’s open and what isn’tWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Preview: February non-farm payrolls…

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price steadies around $103.80 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. WTI price gained over 10% as supply concerns intensified following renewed Iran threats from US President Donald Trump.President Trump warned of intensified military action on Iran over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. But he offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.Reports…

The MT5 Renko Indicator is a technical analysis tool that plots price movement using uniform “bricks” instead of time-based candles. Each brick represents a fixed price change—say 10 pips—and is added only when the market moves that amount. This approach smooths out noise from minor fluctuations, making trends easier to spot. Traders often use it to identify clear support and resistance levels, monitor trend continuation, and detect reversals. Unlike standard charts where price moves continuously, Renko charts highlight decisive shifts, giving a visual edge in fast-moving markets. For instance, on GBP/JPY 1-hour charts during London session overlaps, the Renko indicator…