Author: FX
Share: The GBP/JPY extended losses into Friday trading, tapping into 181.27 and ending the week on the low side. The Pound Sterling rose to 183.82 in the mid-week, but bad data buds and souring market sentiment sent the Guppy back into the week’s lows. Coming up next week: UK labor and wages figures on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday. The GBP/JPY chalked in another red bar to settle Friday, bringing the pair back into range of the week’s lows set on Monday near 181.25, and the closing bell finds the Guppy trading into 181.60. The pair spent the…
Share: EUR/JPY slips inside the Ichimoku Cloud after maintaining levels above it for the past three sessions. The pair breaches the October 12 low of 157.64, with potential further descent towards crucial support levels identified around 156.49/47, 156.00 mark, and Kumo’s bottom at 155.55/60. For upward momentum, the EUR/JPY needs to reclaim the 158.00 level to challenge the top of the Kumo at 158.05/10. EUR/JPY finally dropped inside the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) after flirting during the last three trading days, with the cross-currency pair printing back-to-back days of losses. As we head into the weekend, the pair trades…
Share: Patrick Artus of Natixis is out with a flash note regarding complications for the European Central Bank (ECB) as the central bank looks ahead to a looming confidence crisis. What are the consequences of the ECB’s loss of credibility? If we measure a central bank’s credibility on the basis of long-term inflation expectations, we see that the ECB’s credibility has been declining since the start of 2021, while the Federal Reserve’s credibility has remained stable. If the ECB’s credibility declines while that of the Federal Reserve remains stable, we would expect: A depreciation of the euro/dollar exchange…
Share: WTI surged over 5%, trading at $90.87 per barrel, in response to escalating military actions between Israel and Palestine. Israel’s ground offensive in the Gaza Strip triggers a risk-off market mood, boosting safe-haven assets and oil prices. Iran’s Oil Minister predicts crude prices could hit $100 per barrel due to the intensifying geopolitical situation in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, soars more than 5% on a risk-off impulse due to escalations of the conflict between Palestine and Israel, with the latter beginning its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Therefore,…
Share: Canadian Dollar flows are resurfacing after Thursday’s nosedive, propped up by a reinvigorated oil bid. Canada economic data remains thin until Tuesday’s CPI print. US Dollar giving back yesterday’s gains after consumer sentiment miss. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a mild recovery on Friday, paring back Thursday’s dip after broad-market risk sentiment soured. Investors dog-piled into the US Dollar (USD) after a US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation beat reignited fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates remaining higher for even longer than markets are currently hoping for. Canada’s Crude Oil-linked Loonie is getting pushed higher after…
Markets:Gold up $60 to $1928Oil up $4.74 to $87.65US 10-year yields down 7.9 bps to 4.62%S&P 500 down 0.6%CHF leads, NZD lagsThis isn’t the kind of price action anyone wants to see while bombs are flying in the Middle East. The strength of the rallies in gold and oil suggest some real fear about a wider conflict beyond Gaza. At best, these moves signal caution mixed in with some short covering but the larger they got as the day wore on, the more it felt like something ominous.The Swiss franc was the safe haven of choice with sales in EUR/CHF…
SPX dailyClosing changes on the day: S&P 500 down 0.6%DJIA +0.1%Russell 2000 -0.8%Nasdaq Comp +1.3%Toronto TSX Comp -0.3%Closing changes for the week:S&P 500 up 0.4%DJIA +0.8%Nasdaq Comp -0.2%You hate to see Lockheed Martin up 1.6% and closing near the best levels of the week ahead of potential Middle Eastern war. Source link
CIBC today indicates that next week it will upwardly revise its forecasts for US economic growth and pencil in an additional Fed hike this year.That move goes against the current prevailing market thinking that has the Fed stuck on the sidelines for months. Current pricing suggests only an 8% chance of a hike on Nov 1 and about 30% for the Dec 13 meeting.CIBC said the upcoming forecast will include “an additional Fed rate hike before this year ends, and a further delay before our forecast slowdown kicks in” along with an upward forecast to US growth.Coupled with that will…
Geopolitical news came to the forefront of traders’ focus, sparking big financial market moves to start the week. From there, traders had to balance geopolitical drivers with a heavy dose of central bank speak from around the globe, and another round of top tier economic updates. With so many different major narratives to follow, the correlations between major assets and the usual broad risk sentiment behaviors were weak, leading to a very mixed and unusual performance outcome by the end of the week. Notable News & Economic Updates: ? Broad Market Risk-on Arguments On Monday, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos…
Yesterday, we got an enormous US crude oil supply build, erasing five weeks of draws. It was coupled with data showing US oil production at the highest ever.Yet today we have oil up $4.69 to $87.56 and above the post-Hamas attack peak.I highlight the fibonacci retracement levels from the October rout on this chart with the first bounce stalling out at the 38.2% level and this rally yet to hit the 50% level. But also notice the three-candle reversal over the past three days and the higher low. Those are bullish signals in a market that’s still materially short oil…