Author: FX

Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies over 3% on Friday as dip buyers emerge, amid the conflict entering its fifth week of hostilities, with no signs of de-escalation, and as inflation pressures rise. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,510 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,375.Heightened geopolitical tensions underpin Gold, Oil and the US DollarMarket sentiment remains dismal as US equities fall to 7-month lows. The rise in US Treasury bond yields and broad US Dollar strength has not been an excuse for bullion buyers, who are driving prices higher amid growing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.The US…

The market continues to bid up oil. WTI settled up $5.16 to $99.64 but shortly before settlement it hit $100 per barrel for the first time since Monday, when Trump pushed back his deadline.The market is increasingly seeing longer timelines on resolving this war.WTI daily chartEyes are also on the steel market. A US-Israeli strike occurred today on a large Iranian steel plant. In response, Iran has just released a target list of steel plants it will hit in the coming hours.Kuwait Steel (United Steel Industrial Corporation) — Kuwait City, KuwaitEMSTEEL Group (United Iron and Steel Company) — Abu Dhabi,…

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances. He argues for a calibrated fiscal–monetary mix, with the central bank treating inflation as transitory and targeted government support for households.Imported energy strains and policy response”Four weeks into the Iran conflict, uncertainty remains the only constant. India is feeling the fallout, exposing macro vulnerabilities in energy security, trade logistics, price stability, and external balances.””Despite oil intensity of GDP trending lower and a…

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with AUD/USD extending losses for a fourth straight day as the Greenback remains broadly supported amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.6866, slipping to fresh two-month lows.The US Dollar continues to draw support from its status as the world’s primary reserve currency, with investors turning to the Greenback to meet funding needs and seek safety during periods of heightened market stress.At the same time, rising Oil prices are indirectly boosting demand for the USD, as…

The mood in markets continues to deteriorate into the weekend. I don’t know if that’s pricing in the chance of a weekend escalation or it’s a realization the war could go on for another month (or longer) and that could cripple energy markets. Tech had been vulnerable to AI narratives unwinding all year and it’s worsening now.I worry that we’re still a long way from pricing in a global recession, energy shock and rate hikes. The market has shown patience with the war but Marco Rubio today indicated another two to four weeks. At the outset, Trump said 4-5 weeks…

DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs. CPI is projected around 2.3% year-on-year, above target, prompting government measures including fuel caps, reserve releases, energy-saving campaigns and a KRW 25 trillion supplementary budget.Robust exports but inflation stays above target”South Korea: March trade and CPI data will be the key focus this week, marking the first set of economic releases following the outbreak of the Iran conflict.””Export growth is expected to remain robust…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled on Friday, shedding roughly 510 points or 1.1% to fall below 45,500 and officially enter correction territory. The S&P 500 lost around 1%, bringing its decline from its record high to over 8%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% after entering correction territory a day earlier. Friday’s slide capped a fifth consecutive weekly decline for the broad market, the longest losing streak since 2022, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and fading confidence in a diplomatic resolution with Iran kept risk appetite firmly in check.Strait of Hormuz disruptions rattle energy marketsOil prices surged on…

I don’t know how much anyone believes any of this. On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked.There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this but that’s from the highs of the day. Just before the headlines, WTI was up $4.31 to $98.77 so this could just be an effort to cool pump prices for the weekend.The report says:The Trump administration is signaling to allies that it has no immediate plans…

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after G7 meeting of foreign ministers: We had a really good meeting at G7we expect the Iran operation to conclude at the appropriate time, we are talking weeks not months.Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz.There are no meetings scheduled as of now on Russia – Ukraine.Weapons destined for Ukraine are not being diverted but that could happen.Rubio told G7 leaders that the war with Iran will continue for another 4 weeks. There is nothing Russia is doing for Iran’s that impedes our operations.Zelenskyy was told…