Author: FX
Share: The June US employment report showed the economy added 209,000 jobs, below expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that the report offered additional evidence that the labor market is slowly coming into better balance as job growth slows and labor supply steadily expands. They expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the July meeting. Key quotes: “Nonfarm payrolls have seemed to defy the gravity weighing down other gauges of the labor market over the past year. However, the June employment report suggests this dynamic has run its course. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209K in…
Share: Silber bears are moving in as an hourly lower low is put in and a lower high on Friday. The weekly and daily charts also lean bearish and readers look for confirmation of a trend change. Silver rose on Friday and was on track for their first weekly gain in four as the Greenback and US treasury bond yields fell after weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls numbers cast doubts over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking path beyond July yet again. November Fed hike odds dropped to 39% from 45% after Nonfarm Payrolls. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at…
IATA chartGlobal air travel is perhaps the single-best indicator of covid impacts and the latest data shows that we’re on the cusp of a full retracement.The May report from IATA shows that passenger-kilometers are at 96.1% of the pre-pandemic level, which is up 39.1% year-over-year. I strongly suspect the job is completed in June or July.What’s notable is the skew in traffic and the risks later. Domestic air travel is above pre-covid levels for the second month but international travel is still down 9.2%. Some of that is the slower return of Asian customers and covid concerns when booking vacations…
GBPUSD 4 hour chartThe pound has extended today’s day to 100 pips, touching 1.2848 in a late-week push. As the 4-hour chart above shows, buyers ran into the June high of 1.2848 exactly before backing off a few pips. The bulls may try to make another push late or in low liquidity at the Monday open in an attempt at a fresh 15-month high.The pound is benefiting from a hawkish Bank of England and high inflation. I think ultimately this will prove to be playing with fire as some kind of accident happens if/when rates get to 6%. But for…
Crude oil moves up to test its 100 day moving averageThe price of WTI crude oil futures settled at $73.86. That’s up $2.06 or 2.87%. The gain equaled the gain from July 5 which is the largest gain since June 15. The low price reached $71.19. The high price was at $73.91. The lower US dollar has contributed to the rise.Technically, the move to the upside has the price testing it’s 100-day moving average currently at $73.86. The last time the price tested that moving average was back on May 1 and April 28. The price closed just above the…
EURUSD targets the swing areaThe EURUSD continued its run to the upside and in the process has now reached the next key swing area between 1.09618 and 1.09759. The high price reached 1.09725. The current price trades at 1.0966.The move to the upside took the steps outlined in the pre-employment video. IN that video (see video at the bottom of this post) I spoke of the need to break above the 200-hour MA at 1.08978, then a break of the highs from last Monday and the previous Friday at 1.09329, and if that is broken, getting to the swing area…
The event calendar was packed for the FX space and our strategists managed to put together several effective ideas this week! Check out our recap and let us know how you did! AUD/USD: Monday – July 3, 2023 AUD/USD 30-Min Forex Chart by TV To start off the week, we focused on the upcoming monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia and AUD/USD. Our Event Guide for the RBA statement showed that market expectations were that the RBA would raise by another 25 bps and may signal further tightening ahead. Our thought was that if the RBA did…
S&P 500 daily chartHere’s what I wrote in my preview for non-farm payrolls:In terms of strategy, there’s plenty of talk of buying bonds on a strong non-farm payrolls print in anticipation of a lower CPI next week. The read-through into FX for that trade would be selling a dollar pop if non-farm payrolls are stronger.Non-farm payrolls wasn’t stronger but the bond buyers and dollar sellers were waiting. There was a whole class of investors who were salivating at near-5% yields on the 2-year yesterday but were hesitant to buy ahead of non-farm payrolls. They arrived today and 2s are down…
Share: Chinese regulators are rumored to soon announce a $1.1 billion fine on Ant Group. The fine would allow Ant to apply for a financial license and eventually reapply for an IPO. BABA stock has advanced 6.6% in Friday’s first hour. Alibaba owns 32.65% of Ant Group, owner of Alipay. Alibaba (BABA) stock has climbed 6.6% on Friday after news emerged in the Asian session that Chinese regulators are close to handing affiliate Ant Group a large fine that will allow it to move on from an era of scrutiny and once again attempt to go public. BABA stock has…
AUDUSD tests 100/200 day MAsThe AUDUSD AUD/USD The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian…