Author: FX

Price behaviour remains centred on the mid-structure pivot as the market searches for a resolution.Nasdaq March Futures (NQH) — Daily & Intraday Structure Desk UpdateLondon & New York | December 20Market ContextNasdaq March futures continue to trade within a well-defined structural framework, with both daily and intraday price action compressing around a central pivot. Rather than signalling directional commitment, recent sessions have been characterised by rotation and consolidation, keeping focus on acceptance and rejection at key reference levels as the New York session develops.Daily StructureOn the daily timeframe, price continues to hold above the 25,405 central pivot, following the earlier…

Hedera’s HBAR token has been through the wringer. After spiking to nearly $0.39 earlier this year, the cryptocurrency has shed over 70% of its value, grinding lower in what’s become a textbook downtrend. For those unfamiliar, Hedera operates a decentralized public network that uses a unique hashgraph consensus mechanism, positioning itself as an enterprise-grade alternative to traditional blockchains. But right now, the technical story matters more than the technology.The chart paints a sobering picture. That yellow descending trendline connecting the lower highs since the peak? It’s been an unforgiving ceiling, pushing price steadily downward like a slow-motion avalanche. Each rally…

It’s easy to dunk on strategists. It’s a year-end tradition to pull up the forecast lists and laugh at how wrong the banks were.But they did pretty well this year.With the S&P 500 trading at 6,831 today, the index is up roughly 16% on the year. That is a strong, double-digit run. And when you look at the “consensus” pack—Goldman, JPM, Citi, MS at 6,500—they were only off by about 4.8%.In a game where a single geopolitical headline or a shift in Fed tone can move the market 10% in a month, landing within 5% of the pin a year…

The German DAX has been bouncing around for months but shook off some selling at the start of the week to post a solid gain. It was indicative of the continent, which finished Friday solid to cap an ok week. There was better strength in southern Europe, just like there has been all year. The UK also benefitted from the BOE rate cut.On the day:German DAX +0.4%France’s CAC +0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.7%Spain’s Ibex +0.45%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.7%On the week:German DAX +0.4%France’s CAC +1.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +2.6%Spain’s Ibex +2.0%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.8%Everyone talks about American exceptionalism, but look at the scoreboard.…

Gold (XAU/USD) Gold (XAU/USD) regains ground on Friday, edging modestly higher after earlier weakness, even as a resilient US Dollar (USD) caps upside momentum. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,345, recovering from a daily low near $4,309.The precious metal briefly surged toward record highs on Thursday after US inflation data undershot expectations. However, gains quickly faded as softer inflation lifted risk appetite across equity markets and pushed Gold back within the range established earlier this week.That said, the downside appears limited, as a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook and persistent geopolitical risks continue to provide a steady…

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a rebound in the Greenback keeps USD/CAD confined within its week-old range. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3784, recovering slightly after dipping to an intraday low near 1.3755.The US Dollar holds firm despite a mixed batch of US economic data released earlier in the day. Existing Home Sales rose by 0.5% MoM in November, slowing from October’s 1.5% increase.Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s final December survey showed a modest easing in sentiment. The Consumer Expectations Index was revised down to…

The GBP/USD pair hovers around familiar levels, yet it has dropped below the 1.3400 mark on Friday after Retail Sales in the UK missed estimates and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers crossed the wires. At the time of writing, the pair trades at around 1.3370, virtually unchanged.Sterling eases after disappointing UK consumption data, while cautious BoE and Fed rhetoric keep downside risks aliveSales in the UK rose by 0.6% YoY in November, unchanged from the previous print but missed estimates of 0.9% expansion. On a monthly basis, figures fell 0.1%, beneath forecasts of a 0.4% expansion, reported the Office for National…

After months of easing, the Governing Council decided that 2.00% is the magic number—the “neutral” rate where they can sit back and let the economy hum. But if you listened to Philip Lane today, the humming sounds more like a sputter.Lane’s presentation at the CBI workshop was a masterclass in saying “we are done cutting” while simultaneously showing us a dozen charts explaining why the economy is barely keeping its head above water.Lane is pinning the hold on sticky domestic costs. The data shows services inflation is proving to be a problem, refusing to break below 3% in the near…

Prior was 4.10mHome sales change +0.5% vs +1.2% priorShares of home builders have been beaten up this week on poor earnings and even-weaker forecasts for the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link

Prelim was 53.3Prior was 51.0Conditions 50.4 vs 50.7 prelimExpectations 54.6 vs 55.0 prelim10year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prelim (prior was 4.5%)5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.4%)In the preliminary report, the big surprise was the drop in inflation expectations. Now that tends to correlate with gasoline prices so I’d take it with a grain of salt but the Fed will see it as validation for cutting rates, particularly when combined with the softer CPI report this week. All that said, the market is seeing just a 20% chance of a January rate cut and just over 50% for…