Author: FX

Markets:S&P 500 up 2.0%Russell 2000 up 3.8%US 10-year yields flat at 4.20%WTI crude up 19-cents to $63.48Gold up $183 to $4953Bitcoin up $6850 to $69,957AUD leads, JPY lagsWhat a week.There was no whimper at the end of it either as Friday’s trading was hugely volatile but the relief that nearly all the price action was risk positive. US equities posted a huge rebound and bitcoin nearly recouped Thursday’s gigantic loss as it rose 11.5%. Gold and silver also joined in the rebound.There wasn’t a particular catalyst, though the market did appear to like what Jensen Huang said on TV. The…

Plains All American outlines $2.75B EBITDA guidance for 2026 as company executes NGL divestiture, streamlining, and Cactus III integration Source link

MUFG notes robust Korean export growth, especially in semiconductors, but says KRW has underperformed on heavy foreign equity outflows and AI-valuation concerns. With the Bank of Korea seen at the end of its easing cycle and KRW volatility elevated, MUFG expects choppy trading, though its forecasts show a gradual USD/KRW drift lower through 2026.Equity outflows hit Korean Won”That said, we still think the BoK’s easing cycle has ended given the improving economic fundamental, financial stability risk related to Seoul’s housing market and heightened KRW volatility.””This week, KRW was the underperformer in Asia with 2% depreciation against US dollar given significant…

Leans towards more cuts in 2026, hard to say if it’s one or twoSays she keeps an open mind on ratesTo cut, you’d need to be more confident on inflation or see labor market as more challenged that currentlyWorkers feel they are on the knife’s edgeIf job market goes from ‘no firing’ to ‘some firing’ Fed may need to cutShe sees more vulnerability on jobs market than inflationWould be comfortable holding for longer if inflation picks upThe market is pricing in an 18% chance of a cut in March and one cut is fully priced in (barely) for the June…

The US Dollar (USD) saw little movement this week after markets assessed the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, as the next Fed Chair, and the partial US government shutdown that pushed employment and inflation data to next week. The shutdown was ultimately resolved on Wednesday when President Trump signed a funding bill.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.60 price zone after hitting two-week highs earlier on Friday. Next week, the US ADP Employment Change four-week average will be released on Tuesday,…

Two weeks ago the world was abuzz with precious metals bullish talk. Gold had rallied that week to $4982 from $4629 in the third straight week of gains. It was a near-euphoric time for the gold bulls, nearly hitting the once-dreamlike level of $5000.If you were to ask the bulls then, if they would be happy if in two weeks time gold would close essentially flat, they’d say yes. A consolidation after a long uptrend is good for the market and stability close to $5000 is a win for the bulls.Skip ahead two weeks and it doesn’t feel that way.…

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) climbed sharply on Friday, adding half a percent against the US Dollar (USD) after January labor market data showed the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%, its lowest reading since September 2024. The Loonie found support despite headline employment falling by 25,000, as a sharp decline in labor force participation drove the jobless rate lower. USD/CAD pulled back toward 1.3634, trimming gains accumulated over recent weeks.Labor market details were mixed. The unemployment rate fell three-tenths of a percentage point to 6.5%, but the improvement came primarily from 94,000 people exiting the labor force rather than from job…

DBS Group Research report, authored by Radhika Rao, reports that Moody’s has changed Indonesia’s rating outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ while affirming the Baa2 rating. The agency cited concerns about reduced predictability in policymaking and increased spending without corresponding revenue generation. The report emphasizes the potential for a downgrade if policy actions do not improve over the next 12-18 months.Moody’s negative rating outlook”Moody’s Ratings changed Indonesia’s rating outlook to ‘negative; from ‘stable’ on late Thursday, while affirming the Baa2 rating. The agency expressed far ranging concerns, citing “reduced predictability in policymaking, which risks undermining policy effectiveness and points to weakening…

There’s a moment in every drawdown, every flash crash, every this time is different panic where something shifts inside you. It’s not just fear — it’s the desperate need for someone, anyone, to tell you what’s going to happen next. Every trader wants certainty in a world that just reminded you it offers none.I’ve watched this pattern play out across decades of markets and it never changes. When the VIX spikes, when carry trades unwind, when central banks surprise (and this week when software stocks, silver and bitcoin plunge) — the first thing traders do isn’t analyze. It’s search. They…

Gold price (XAU/USD) rallies more than 3% on Friday, poised for a decent weekly gain as dip buyers emerged, following a session that pushed the yellow metal below the $4,800 mark. Worth noting that Friday has been a volatile session, with the non-yielding metal falling to a three-day low of $4,655 before erasing those previous losses. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,963.XAU/USD stages a sharp rebound toward $4,950 as soft US labor data revives Fed easing betsThe non-yielding metal is enjoying a healthy recovery from Thursday. Greenback’s initial weakness on Friday reflected worse-than-expected US labor market data…