Author: FX
On the day:Stoxx 600 -1.1%German DAX -0.8%France’s CAC, -1.1%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.3%Spain’s Ibex -1.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%On the week:Stoxx 600 -3.2%German DAX -3.4%France’s CAC, -3.3%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.8%Spain’s Ibex -1.9%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.5%Optimism was building early in the week but it completely collapsed after the Fed and ECB.German DAX dailyADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
It’s cold in Europe right now and that’s going to lead to another big week of draws in natural gas supplies. The good news is that inventories are still high and that’s buffeted by some LNG ships off the coast of Spain.Where it could start to get complicated is China coming back into the mix. According to Platts, China issued tenders to buy LNG cargoes starting in Feb and running through Dec 2023. Those are the first incremental buys since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war and is another signal regarding China’s reopening.This is the important chart, as it shows…
The USD/JPY failed to gain traction despite rising US Treasury yields. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Remains upward biased, though a pullback toward 136.00 is on the cards. The USD/JPY fell after testing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 137.88 and dropped below the 137.00 mark in the North American session amid a risk-off impulse. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 136.63, below its opening price by 0.84%, after hitting a high of 137.80. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook From a daily chart perspective, the USD/JPY remains range-bound, within the boundaries of the 20-day EMA and the…
The AUD/USD pair dropped sharply on Thursday and it stabilized slightly below 0.6700 on Friday. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the AUD/USD pair will move lower over the next months. They forecast it at 0.66 in three months and at 0.65 in six months. Key Quotes: “Lower-than-expected inflation prints from the US, consequent speculation on Fed possibly easing its monetary policy earlier and the turnaround in Chinese Covid-policies have continued to support AUD/USD.” “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates again by 25bp in the December meeting. While RBA signalled that rate hikes would continue in 2023, markets…
USDJPY falls to the 100/200 hour MA targetThe flight into the safety of the JPY is continuing with the USDJPY moving lower as stocks keep most of their declines. Looking at the hourly chart, the USDJPY tried to extend above a swing area going back to November 28 between 137.48 and 137.85 and the 50% of the range since November 21 during trading yesterday, but failed. It was about USD buying yesterday despite stock declines. Today the focus seems to be more on the “risk off” flows (flight to safety of the JPY). That is the story I am telling…
The USD/JPY pair is about to end the week hovering around 136.50/80, near the same level it had a week ago. Analysts from Danske Bank forecast the pair at 137 in a month, at 139 in three months, and then to move lower, reaching 128 in twelve months. Key Quotes: “Upside risks to USD/JPY come from a continued pressure for higher global yields, although intervention will likely cap sudden moves higher. If global slowdown turns into a more severe recession and speculators unwind short JPY positions, flatter yield curves and cheaper energy can quickly become a tailwind for JPY.” “The…
On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico rose the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 10.5%, following the same hike from the Federal Reserve. According to the Research Department at BBVA, Banxico will decouple from the Fed in 2023 and they see lower growth and inflation in Mexico. Key Quotes: “We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.” “November will mark the…
Gold managed to rise slightly above the 200-day SMA despite Thursday’s sharp decline. While above here, XAU/USD retains a bullish bias, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer reports The $1,780/$1,775 area aligns as initial support “In case XAU/USD stabilizes above $1,790 (200-day SMA) and confirms that level as support, it could test $1,800 in the short term before targeting $1,830 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the long-term downtrend) and $1,860 (static level).” “On the downside, $1,780/$1,775 area (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 20-day SMA) aligns as initial support before $1,740 (static level) and $1,720 (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA).” Source link
Gold rebounds from weekly lows after being able to hold above $1,770. Wall Street indices drop more than 1% on Friday, adding to weekly losses. US data: Preliminary November S&P Global PMI below expectations. Gold price rebounded further from weekly lows following the release of the US S&P Global PMI report, hitting a fresh daily high at $1,793. It is about to end the week at the same level it had seven days ago. Moving away from $1,770 XAUD/USD broke above $1,785 after the release of the US S&P Global PMI report that came in below expectations. According to the…
EUR/USD rose to 1.07 after the hawkish ECB surprise. Economists at Nordea expect the pair to stretch higher toward 1.10 over the next month. EUR/USD seen at 1.13 by the end of 2023 “A high possibility of a new year rally in stock markets (which would favour a weaker USD) together with a rate differential which has moved in favour of the EUR imply a high likelihood for EUR/USD to move even higher than the current 1.06. We believe that from a tactical perspective, EUR/USD is most likely to see 1.10 over the next month.” “Our 3M forecast of EUR/USD…