Author: FX

EURUSD skims the 100 hour MAMoreover a move below runs into other targets from recent lows including the swing area between 1.0584 and 1.0594, and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 7 low at 1.05889.As I type, the 100 hour MA is being broken. Now the question is “Do the sellers keep the momentum going?”. Source link

Economists at ANZ Bank have raised their Gold price forecast for the end of next year to $1,900.  Some scope for a retracement of recent gains in the near term “Short term, we see some scope for a retracement of recent gains. This would be largely off the back of a stronger USD. Investor positioning shows non-commercial short positions built to a sizeable level in Q3 2022, but some of those positions have been trimmed as expectations of a slower rate hike cycle developed.” “As global growth slows through Q2 amid elevated geopolitical risks, we expect safe haven buying to…

S&P Global PMIs in the United States sparked recession jitters and bolstered the US Dollar. Eurozone data was better than estimated, though inflation remains high, while PMIs in contractionary territory. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Daily close below 1.0592 to exacerbate a fall to the 20-day EMA. The EUR/USD remains subdued during the North American session, following monetary policy meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), with both entities raising rates amidst a period of high and stickier inflation. However, a surprisingly hawkish tone employed by the ECB President Christine Lagarde capped the fall of the Euro…

Indices Fundamental Forecast: Bearish Recommended by James Stanley Get Your Free Equities Forecast It was a big week in stocks as the Tuesday CPI report brought a reversal scenario into the equation that got another shot-in-the-arm on Wednesday at the FOMC rate decision. Hopes for a FOMC pivot into rate cuts were dashed as Powell struck a hawkish tone, warning that the Fed ‘has a ways to go’ with inflation. And this really furthers the theme that’s been pushing stocks throughout this year: The Fed hikes to address inflation, markets get hopeful that the Fed has done enough, or at…

<p>Early trading showed some resilience in equities but that's quickly evaporated. The selling picked up after the soft US services PMI and that's interesting because it means that the bad-news-is-good-news narrative is failing. That's because the Fed appears to be determined to hike despite mounting signs of a slowdown.</p><p>Said another way, the market is growing more worried about a tougher recession.</p><p>Technically, this looks like a head-and-shoulders top with a target at 10,400, or another 3% lower from here. I can certainly see a case where we close near the lows of the year.</p> This article was written by Adam Button…

The Mexican Peso (MXN) has been underperforming recently. However, economists at ING expect the USD/MXN pair to move back toward 19.00. Banxico dances toe-to-toe with the Fed “Banxico followed the Fed again by hiking the policy rate by 50 bps to 10.50%. That keeps the 600 bps+ policy spread over US rates and should keep the MXN supported. Banxico also said that further rate hikes should be expected. In practice, this should mean another 50 bps hike in February to match the Fed.” “MXN underperformance should not last long. High rates, low volatility, and Mexico proving the most likely candidate…

S&P Global Services PMI continued to decline in December. US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 104.50. S&P Global Services PMI declined to 44.4 in December’s flash estimate from 46.2 in November. This print fell short of the market expectation of 46.8. Regarding the price pressure in the service sector, “inflationary pressures in the service sector cooled notably in December, as input costs rose at the softest pace since October 2020,” said S&P Global. “Despite some material and labor costs rising, reports of lower wholesale and fuel prices eased pressure on cost burdens.” Further details of the publication revealed…

AUDUSD has good support and resistance in playThe AUDUSD is lower on the day now after rising in the early Asian session. The high price for the day fell short of the swing area between 0.6738 0.67437 (see red numbered circles and lower yellow area on the chart above). The high price could only reach 0.67353 before rotating back to the downside.The price it just moved down to retest the low price from yesterday at 0.6676. The low price 0.66745. Just below those levels since the 100 day moving average currently at 0.6669. The low price from December 7 (and…

Swiss franc weakens amid higher European bond yields. US Dollar firm on the back of risk aversion. USD/CHF up on Friday, but still down for the week. The USD/CHF is rising for the second day in a row. It hit a four-day high at 0.9318 and the pulled back following the US S&P Global PMI that came in below expectations. Still, the Dollar continues to receive support from risk aversion. USD/CHF off highs, still up The USD/CHF pulled back to 0.9290 after the economic report but it is still up for the day supported by a stronger US Dollar across…

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI continued to edge lower in early December. US Dollar Index declined below 104.50 with the initial reaction. The economic activity in the US manufacturing sector continued to contract at an accelerating pace in early December with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropping to 46.2 from 47.7 in November. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 47.7. “Manufacturers registered one of the sharpest declines in new orders since the 2008-9 financial crisis during December, as customer spending waned,” S&P Global said in its publication. “The further acceleration in the pace of contraction in new business…