Author: FX
The US dollar has given back most of its gains and the initial hawkish reaction to the non-farm payrolls report has been largely erased.That probably reflects that non-farm payrolls are a lagging indicator and that the Fed has already signaled slowing rate hikes to 50 bps. In short, the report wasn’t strong enough to change anything, at least not yet. In addition, there was already a trend towards a weakening dollar this week and the market has gotten back to that.Or maybe there’s more to it.I highlighted the importance of the household survey ahead of the data and it was…
US Dollar remains weaker, despite upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The USD/CHF hit a daily high following the US NFP headline but plunged in the aftermath. USD/CHF: Break below 0.9370 to pave the way to the 0.9300 figure. The USD/CHF trims some of its earlier losses/gains in a volatile trading session, spurred by a buoyant US Nonfarm Payrolls report for November, which increased the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep increasing borrowing costs. Nevertheless, manufacturing activity slowing reignited recession fears in the US economy. Therefore, the USD/CHF fluctuates around 0.9370s at the time of writing. USD/CHF Price…
<p>WTI crude oil is down 14-cents to $81.15. The rest of the G7 (and Australia) will need to approve the deal in short order. It's set to go into effect on Monday, which is the day after the OPEC+ meeting.</p><p>Next week could be an interesting one in the energy market.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com. Source link
The Mexican Peso has been rising versus the US Dollar over the last weeks. Analysts at MUFG Bank, argue the resilience of the Mexican Peso might not last long amid domestic and external risks. Their forecast is for USD/MXN to reach 19.80 by the end of the first quarter 2023 and 20.00 by the third quarter. Key Quotes: “The Mexican peso continued its strengthening path in November helped by improving risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar supported by expectations for a slower pace of Fed hikes.” “Further Fed hikes albeit slower along with the resilient core inflation in Mexico leads…
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate moderately due to the potential strengthening of the US dollar in the near term, according to analysts at MUFG Bank. They forecast USD/INR at 82.300 by the end of the first quarter of next year and at 80.500 by the third quarter. Key Quotes: “Tracking gains in most emerging Asian peers, the INR advanced mildly last month along with a mild gain in India’s stock market, with the benchmark BSE Sensex up 3.2% to 62,858 as foreigners’ net purchased USD3.11 billion worth of Indian equities in November. Easing crude oil prices also offered…
“We are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we slow pace of rate hikes,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday, as reported by Reuters. “We’re on a path to getting financial conditions appropriately restrictive to bring inflation down to 2%,” Evans noted and added that they are well-positioned to be evaluating some very clear improvements on inflation. Market reaction The US Dollar Index clings to modest recovery gains following these remarks and was last seen rising 0.32% on the day at 105.05. Source link
On Friday, the Canadian employment report showed better-than-expected numbers. The Loonie fell against the US Dollar but rose against its other rivals. Analysts at CIBC point out that the report supports their view that the Bank of Canada will increase rates by 50 bps next week, before pausing in 2023. Key Quotes: “After a roller coaster few months, the Canadian labour market moved sideways in November. The 10.1K job gain was in line with consensus expectations, as gains in full-time jobs were almost fully offset by losses in part-time employment. Looking through the volatility inherent to this series, the Canadian…
In the last month, we have had a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar. Economists at Nordea expect the greenback to remain supported in the near-term, however, EUR/USD is set to edge higher next year. Dollar’s rise on increasing recession risks to be brief “In the short-term, we believe EUR/USD is bound for a slight pullback, rather than a quick trend reversal for a higher EUR/USD. Key to our thinking is that downside risks prevail in financial markets, which will benefit the safe haven USD.” “Looking ahead, the USD is likely to rise initially in response to rising recession risks…
Following Chair Powell and economic data that weighed on USD this week, the strong NFP numbers (263k vs. 200k) managed to reverse that pressure. Next week is quieter but remains significant, OPEC meetings kicking things off over the weekend and the RBA and BOC lead the December central bank announcements. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. Sunday – Monday – 05 December 2022 OPEC Meeting (All Day – Sunday) ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 01:45) ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) –…
As most technical analysis courses will tell you, there is no “Holy Grail” indicator that can guarantee profits in the forex market. That doesn’t mean you should give up the search for the “best” technical indicator that works for you. Don’t forget that you can always mix and match indicators or tweak their settings to come up with a consistently profitable strategy. The possibilities are endless! But before you get overwhelmed by all the options, start off by answering these four key questions first: 1. What do you want to use the indicator for? As with most activities, the choice…