Author: FX
We’re back to where we started.US markets have completely erased the moves after the strong non-farm payrolls report. The S&P 500 is now down just 5 points to 4071 and on track for a weekly close above 200-day moving average for the first time since April. It’s an impressive performance.More curious is the relentless bid in long-dated bonds. US 10s are down 3 bps to 3.49% from a high of 3.63%. US 30s are down 8 bps to 3.55% from a high of 3.70%.One line of thinking is that bond market participants are trying to get ahead of ‘the next…
The price of crude oil futures settled at $79.98. That is down -$1.24 or -1.53%. The OPEC+ meeting will take place virtually on Sunday. No change in production is expected.The price cap looks to be set at $60 for Russian oilThe Russian sanctions will also go into effect cutting off all imports of Russian imports. Those will stop on Monday. So there are a lot of balls in the air that could have impact on supply. On the demand side, China and its Covid policy remains a wild card for global demand. For the week, the price is up 4.79%…
Bloomberg reports that the hedge fund founded by Ray Dalio — Bridgewater Associates — has mostly ruined what was shaping up to be the hedge fund best year in more than a decade.The flagship Pure Alpha fund fell 13% in Oct-Nov to cut the year-to-date gains to 6%. The Pure Alpha II fund fell 20% in those two months to cut the YTD gain to 7.8%. This year those are still very good gains compared to most hedge funds but that’s a big hit, especially with Kanye West posting this in his twitter flameout.ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
The USD/JPY retraced from daily highs of 120 pips, as the USD is being offered. USD/JPY: Daily close below the 200-DMA opens the door for a drop to 131.70s. The US Dollar (USD) gave away its earlier gains courtesy of upbeat economic data revealed in the United States (US) and dropped 0.52% against the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 134.63, below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), as the JPY gets ready to finish the week with gains of 3.26%. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook The USD/JPY daily chart portrays the pair…
The US dollar has given back most of its gains and the initial hawkish reaction to the non-farm payrolls report has been largely erased.That probably reflects that non-farm payrolls are a lagging indicator and that the Fed has already signaled slowing rate hikes to 50 bps. In short, the report wasn’t strong enough to change anything, at least not yet. In addition, there was already a trend towards a weakening dollar this week and the market has gotten back to that.Or maybe there’s more to it.I highlighted the importance of the household survey ahead of the data and it was…
US Dollar remains weaker, despite upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The USD/CHF hit a daily high following the US NFP headline but plunged in the aftermath. USD/CHF: Break below 0.9370 to pave the way to the 0.9300 figure. The USD/CHF trims some of its earlier losses/gains in a volatile trading session, spurred by a buoyant US Nonfarm Payrolls report for November, which increased the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep increasing borrowing costs. Nevertheless, manufacturing activity slowing reignited recession fears in the US economy. Therefore, the USD/CHF fluctuates around 0.9370s at the time of writing. USD/CHF Price…
<p>WTI crude oil is down 14-cents to $81.15. The rest of the G7 (and Australia) will need to approve the deal in short order. It's set to go into effect on Monday, which is the day after the OPEC+ meeting.</p><p>Next week could be an interesting one in the energy market.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com. Source link
The Mexican Peso has been rising versus the US Dollar over the last weeks. Analysts at MUFG Bank, argue the resilience of the Mexican Peso might not last long amid domestic and external risks. Their forecast is for USD/MXN to reach 19.80 by the end of the first quarter 2023 and 20.00 by the third quarter. Key Quotes: “The Mexican peso continued its strengthening path in November helped by improving risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar supported by expectations for a slower pace of Fed hikes.” “Further Fed hikes albeit slower along with the resilient core inflation in Mexico leads…
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate moderately due to the potential strengthening of the US dollar in the near term, according to analysts at MUFG Bank. They forecast USD/INR at 82.300 by the end of the first quarter of next year and at 80.500 by the third quarter. Key Quotes: “Tracking gains in most emerging Asian peers, the INR advanced mildly last month along with a mild gain in India’s stock market, with the benchmark BSE Sensex up 3.2% to 62,858 as foreigners’ net purchased USD3.11 billion worth of Indian equities in November. Easing crude oil prices also offered…
“We are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we slow pace of rate hikes,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday, as reported by Reuters. “We’re on a path to getting financial conditions appropriately restrictive to bring inflation down to 2%,” Evans noted and added that they are well-positioned to be evaluating some very clear improvements on inflation. Market reaction The US Dollar Index clings to modest recovery gains following these remarks and was last seen rising 0.32% on the day at 105.05. Source link