Author: FX

Share: XAU/USD fell near the 100-day SMA near $1,960 but held weekly gains. USD continued to gain ground on Friday following solid Jobless Claims data. All eyes are on the FOMC decision next week. At the end of the week, the XAU/USD traded near the 100-day Simple Moving Average of $1,962, experiencing a 0.30% decline but recorded a weekly gain, its third in a row. The prevailing strength of the US Dollar continues to exert downward pressure on XAU/USD. Notably, the recent release of Initial Jobless Claims data by the US Department of Labor revealed a lower figure…

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Representative Terri Sewell (D-AL) speaks, at the commemoration of the 58th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday”, when state troopers beat peaceful voting rights protesters who were marching against discrimination, at the Edmund Pettus Bridge i By Josephine Walker and Joseph Ax (Reuters) -Alabama’s Republican-controlled legislature on Friday passed a new congressional map that increased the number of Black voters in one of the state’s districts, but Democrats said the plan defied a U.S. Supreme Court ruling intended to protect minority voters’ rights. Civil rights groups have already vowed to challenge the new map in court, a…

Markets:Gold down $8 to $1961WTI crude oil up $1.27 to $76.92US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 3.83%S&P 500 down 2 points to 4564CHF leads, JPY lagsThe economic calendar was light and there was little in the way of unscheduled news to jar the market. Heavy options expiries in stocks and the Nasdaq rebalancing drew some interest but price action was ultimately subdued, though not entirely quiet.The big mover on the day was what looks like a BOJ leak to Reuters that the BOJ isn’t planning to change up yield curve control next week. That kicked off big yen sales…

Share: AUD/USD point of control eyed near 0.6680. Bulls step in at key support area vs. heavily bearish price action.  As per the prior analysis, AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears eye a break below key 0.6750, we have seen this play out. The bears moved in and took out the 0.6750s, printing a low of 0.6722, with last week’s lows down in the 0.6620s on a break of 0.6700, 0.6690. AUD/USD prior analysis ”The market has been giving two-way business and what we might see now is a downside continuation as follows:  AUD/USD H4 chart The bears are lurking to fade rallies…

The Dow industrial average kept its winning streak alive with a slim gain of 0.01% today. The S&P index also rose modestly. The NASDAQ index fell for the 2nd consecutive day and is closing lower on the week.The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average up 2.5 points or 0.01% at 35227.70S&P index up 1.48 points or 0.03% at 4536.34NASDAQ index fell -30.51 points or -0.2% at 14032.80This week: The Dow industrial average is now risen for 10 consecutive trading daysThe Dow streak is the longest since August/September 2017On Thursday the NASDAQ index had its worst day since MarchHealthcare, energy and…

Global growth and high interest rate concerns dragged the New Zealand dollar to the bottom of the forex heap this week. Meanwhile, strong U.S. data inspired hawkish Fed bets and pushed the U.S. dollar higher across the board. Missed the major forex headlines? Here’s what you need to know about last week’s FX scene: USD Pairs Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TV Anti-risk global growth concerns and pro-risk “peak Fed interest rate” speculations following the previous week’s slow U.S. CPI reading kept the U.S. dollar in tight ranges in the first half of the week. The Greenback started…

The EURGBP is major cross-currency pair that rose sharply this week. With the ECB meeting ahead next week, understanding the technical levels in play could open the door for trading opportunities.Technically as well, the market traders have used the technicals on the extremes to define support and resistance, and the correction off the high this week, has seen a swing level/area do a good job of holding support. Looking at the 4-hour chart below, the pair on Monday and Tuesday based at the 100/200 MA. The basing at the level, gave the buyers the go ahead to push higher. On…

Escalating tensions in Ukraine and resilient economic data from the major economies got traders pricing in higher interest rates and risk aversion. No wonder commodity-related currencies like NZD tanked while safe havens like the Swiss franc and gold gained ground! Not sure what I’m talking about? I can explain, but lemme show you the biggest headlines first: Notable News & Economic Updates: ? Broad Market Risk-on Arguments ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond next week’s meeting is anything but guaranteed New Zealand’s CPI up by 1.1% q/q in Q2 2023 vs. 1.2% in Q1, 0.9% expected.…

oil with 200 dmaWTI crude oil has been flirting with the 200-day moving average all week and finally had a look above it, rising to $77.29. However it wasn’t able to break the weekly high of $77.32 and has backtracked slightly to $77.06.In all, I wouldn’t be comfortable calling that a technical break but it sets up next week to be an interesting moment in the crude oil market. We should hear soon about Saudi plans on whether to extend voluntary cuts through September so that could be the headline that does it. If not, the market will be looking…

I have showed this chart before because it shows how the CPI chart laps some very easy comps soon.What has emerged, pointed out by Omair Sharif, is that the numbers used on the chart are non-seasonally adjusted, which isn’t what is commonly (universally, frankly) used for the m/m CPI numbers.What it showed was that even if CPI ran at 0.2% m/m until January, the year-over-year reading would rise to 3.9%.This is problematic for two reasons:1) If you use the standard seasonally-adjusted numbers, a 0.2% m/m reading would get CPI back to 2.5% in January.2) If you insist on using non-seasonally-adjusted…