Author: FX

Key details:New export orders rise for first time in four years Business optimism at highest level since before 2024 Autumn budget Comment:Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Rates of output and order book growth accelerated, while new export business rose for the first time in four years, with Europe, China and the US the main recipients. “There was also a positive bounceback in business confidence, which rose to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget, as manufacturers focussed…

DBS Bank’s Group Research report, authored by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist, and Nathan Chow, Senior Economist and Strategist, discusses the potential impact of US intervention in Iran on Oil prices. The report highlights that while current sanctions may not materially affect the oil market, a military response could push prices significantly higher. The analysis suggests that oil could reach USD100/barrel if the Iranian regime faces severe threats.Geopolitical risks and oil prices”At a time when inflation pressures are easing globally, oil has the potential to be a spoiler. We consider scenarios around US intervention in Iran.””In such scenarios, military response…

Germany retail sales edge higher in December Source link

Everyone and their mom expects the RBA to raise interest rates, just six months after cutting them. Our Event Guide for February’s RBA Monetary Policy Statement shows why the case for tightening has gotten a lot stronger. Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the labor market is still holding up, suggesting the economy is running closer to full capacity than policymakers thought. If a rate hike fuels Australian dollar strength, setups on AUD/JPY and GBP/AUD could start leaning in favor of the Aussie bulls. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full…

The RBA is widely expected to hike rates this February, but what if the central bank still refrains from doing so? Our Event Guide for the RBA Decision suggests that a surprise decision to keep policy unchanged could still be accompanied by commentary keeping the door open for tightening much later on. Here’s what I’m watching on AUD/CAD and AUD/JPY in this scenario. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Unlimited Access access to MarketMilk™ Plus…

Fitch said India’s budget underscores macro stability and fiscal credibility, with growth seen steady.Summary:Fitch Ratings said India’s latest budget reinforces its commitment to macro stability, even as fiscal consolidation slows.The agency views the FY27 deficit target of 4.3% of GDP as modest progress, reflecting the growing difficulty of further consolidation.Fitch described the budget as broadly neutral for growth, forecasting FY27 GDP growth of 6.4%.Elevated deficits, debt and interest costs remain a constraint, though stronger capital expenditure is supporting medium-term growth potential.Indian equities edged higher, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 both turning positive after the Fitch comments.Earlier:India’s budget has drawn…

The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.6025 during the early Asian session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains firm against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Traders will take more cues from the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report later on Monday. Data released by RatingDog on Monday showed that China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in January, compared to 50.1 in December. This reading registered the highest since October 2025 and met market expectations. This report could provide modest support for the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is New Zealand’s…

Oil prices fall by 3% on US-Iran de-escalation Source link

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the…

China’s President Xi Jinping said in an article published on Saturday in Qiushi that he has renewed calls for the Chinese Yuan to build a “strong currency” that can become widely used in international trade, investment and foreign exchange markets and reach the status of a global reserve.These remarks underscore Beijing’s long-term ambition to reduce reliance on the US Dollar (USD).Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6941, down 0.30% on the day.  Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia…