Author: FX
Rates are now at neutral rateEconomy doesn’t need stimulusExpects economy to continue growing above trend, boosted by fiscal policyExpects inflation to decline to 2% but sees risk it could remain aboveFurther cuts only needed if jobs market were to decay or inflation fallsHawkish stuff from Musalem and the market thinks Warsh is a hawk deep down. Are we slowly going to price out the Fed easing that’s in the market this year?The market is pricing in 52 bps in easing through year end, which is a touch more than at the start of the week. We saw the GDP trackers…
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its losses on Friday, plunges nearly 10% to sink below $4,900 after US President Donald Trump revealed his pick for Fed Chair, while a hot inflation reading in the US justified the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision on Wednesday to keep rates steady. The XAU/USD trades around the top/bottom of the $5,000 mark.Bullion plunges over 7% as a hawkish Fed chair nomination and stubborn inflation crush easing hopesOn Friday morning, Trump revealed that he chose Kevin Warsh to become the new Chair of the US central bank. Warsh wasknown as a hawk in his previous period as…
USD/JPY rebounds around 154.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.90% on the day, supported by a renewed recovery in the US Dollar (USD) after several weeks of weakness. The move comes as markets reassess the monetary policy outlook in the United States (US) and Japan.The US Dollar strengthened after US President Donald Trump expressed his support for Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed). If confirmed by the Senate, Kevin Warsh would succeed Jerome Powell, whose term is set to expire in May. Investors, who initially feared a highly dovish nomination given the president’s repeated calls…
Trump may not carry out Bombardier threats but analysts see investor sentiment hurting shares Source link
These are some breathtaking moves in precious metals today.Gold is now at the session low, down 10.0%, or $837, to $4855. It’s an incredible reversal on the daily chart and a textbook three-candle top.gold dailyAs amazing as that is, silver is something else. It’s down 26%, or $29 to $86.57. Note that less than a year ago, an ounce of silver traded for $27 so this is equal to its entire value at the time. However just yesterday it traded at $121 and a 26.5% decline would be the worst percentage drop ever, worse than the post-Hunt brothers bust.This certainly…
Oil prices are marginally higher today as we watch and wait on Iran.Trump is out once again reminding everyone that an ‘armada’ is heading towards Iran and it’s even bigger than the one that went to Venezuela. That’s obviously a threat and will hang over any negotiation.This is the kind of thing that can get ugly fast and that’s why oil has rallied steadily from $59 on Jan 22 to $65.73 last. We’re at the point where there are two-way risks because this could also de-escalate or US attacks could avoid hitting oil infrastructure. Iran could also refrain from closing…
Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor during the financials crisis and thanks to rules that release transcripts six years after the meetings, we can see exactly what he argued for and why.They highlight an overly-hawkish plicymaker that was flat-out wrong about the inflation risks. It’s also in stark contrast to his recent turn towards being an unabashed dove, something that seems politically expedient given that he has lobbied for the Fed Chair job for at least 9 years.Warsh was an FOMC governor from 2006 to 2011. Here are some revealing comments.FOMC transcript, Jan 30–31, 2007:“The trends appeared supportive of strong,…
Sector OverviewThe U.S. stock market presents a diverse range of performances today, with notable swings across sectors. Technology is painting a mixed picture; software infrastructure like Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.59%, whereas semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) remains almost flat at -0.06%. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) struggles, plunging by 4.84%.Telecommunications emerge as the day’s winner, with T-Mobile (TMUS) climbing 1.47% and Verizon (VZ) surging 4.07%. The sector benefits from consistent demand and potential market optimism regarding upcoming developments.Market Mood and TrendsToday’s market exhibits a mixed sentiment, with a cautious eye on technology amidst broader economic uncertainties. Investors are reacting to…
If you were watching gold prices on Thursday, you probably witnessed one of the wildest moves in precious metals history. In a single day, gold swung through a massive $500 range—hitting a record high near $5,600 per ounce during the morning before crashing nearly 9% to around $5,100 during U.S. trading hours, then recovering some losses to close near $5,330. That’s like the S&P 500 dropping 400 points and bouncing back 150 points all in one session! For a market that’s supposed to be a “safe haven,” it looked more like a thrill ride. Gold Was Already Running Hot To…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller maintains his dovish stance, explaining why he dissented in favor of a 25 bps cut at the latest policy meeting. Waller’s stance underscores a growing concern that the central bank’s current restrictive policy is stifling economic activity despite superficially solid growth figures.Waller’s primary concern lies in a unhealty labor market. While headline economic growth remains steady, he argues that underlying demand is weakening. He warned that the market should prepare for significant downward revisions to last year’s data, suggesting that “payroll growth in 2025 was virtually unchanged”.Looking ahead, Waller sees more weakness for 2026 due…