Author: FX
Share: GBP/USD weighed by safe-haven US Dollar buying in face of a banking crisis. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO and global head of fixed income said Credit Suisse is the tip of the iceberg. GBP/USD continuation traders are in the market as renewed unease gripped world markets on Wednesday on the news that Credit Suisse’s largest investor said it could not provide the Swiss bank with more financial assistance, prompting the Swiss bank’s CEO to make new assurances on its financial strength. Credit Suisse has been battling to recover from a string of scandals that have undermined the confidence of investors…
The markets are again lowering bets on the FOMC’s rate path as financial stresses surge again. And they are taking on a global flavor as turmoil with Credit Suisse reflects a potentially widening problem of a systemic nature after the seemingly more idiosyncratic woes with SVB, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank. Indications of poor regulation have added to diminishing credibility of central bankers. And now the ECB and FOMC are between rocks and hard places as they need to balance the risks of worsening the stresses in the financial system against still high inflation. After largely promising further tightening in…
Government Budget to Focus on Public Debt, Reducing Inflation and Economic GrowthUK Spring Statement Highlights:OBR forecast that with the measures announced by Jeremy Hunt, the UK will avoid a technical recession but a modest contraction of 0.2%.OBR forecasts that inflation will fall from 10.7% to 2.9% by the end of 2023 – a fall of more than half which was originally targeted by the Tory governmentThe £2500 energy price guarantee extended for three monthsFuel duty remains frozen for another year with the 5p cut in the price of petrol and diesel remain in placeNuclear energy to be reclassified as ‘environmentally…
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Technical traders have been attempting to incorporate statistics with trading. Afterall, a trading edge based on technical analysis relies on probabilities. However, many attempts to do so often prove to be futile. One concept from statistics that shows some promise and has in fact been used by many traders is Linear Regression. This strategy shows us an example of an indicator which uses linear regression to help traders make sense of a price chart. i-Regression Indicator The i-Regression Indicator is a custom technical indicator which is based on a statistical concept called Linear Regression. Such use of linear regressions allows…
Mid-month and the Dollar has come under some significant pressure on the back of hot labour market data, banking sector concerns and rising inflation. Dollar The Greenback rolls into midweek shaking off some of the selling pressure as it finds some mild support near a one-month low. Factors contributing to this downward pressure beginning to subside can be attributed to fears around the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank beginning to recede, as regulators hint that a raft of tougher liquidity requirements are in the works to monitor and assess a bank’s ability to endure hypothetical scenarios…
The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected), however the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures see an 81.2% chance of a 25bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. confirmed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%. FX –…
The source is saying that policymakers are still leaning towards 50 bps rate hike as they expect inflation to remain too high in the coming years. Adding that they are unlikely to ditch the idea of that considering it would damage their credibility.Meanwhile, the new inflation forecasts are expected to be lower than in December but will continue to reflect price growth slightly above the 2% target in 2025. Source link
Remember that range resistance trade that we spotted a few days back? Well, WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices have gone down and now the commodity benchmark is re-testing its support zone! See, Fed rate hike speculations and global growth concerns weighed on risk assets last week and helped drag WTI prices from its $80.80 levels all the way to the range support near $72.00. WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) 4-hour Chart by TradingView Crude oil prices didn’t even join the risk party earlier this week! Instead of dumping the dollar in favor of more speculative bets, it looks like oil traders…
Share: NZD/USD has sensed heat while attempting to surpass the 0.6250 resistance despite the risk-on impulse. Declining US CPI, higher jobless rate, and the SVB collapse might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain less hawkish on interest rates. A weak NZ growth rate might delight Reserve Bank of New Zealand policymakers as inflationary pressures could come down ahead. NZD/USD is expected to deliver some downside as it has surrendered the 20-EMA support. NZD/USD is facing hurdles in stretching its recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.6250 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset has sensed barricades…