Author: FX
> Fed’s Barkin: Not taking signal from jobs & retail sales due to seasonal adjustments Interesting comment from Barkin Adam Button Friday, 17/02/2023 | 15:31 GMT-0 17/02/2023 | 15:31 GMT-0 These are some more-constructive comments from a Fed official who is usually close to the core. The seasonal adjustment comment on the January ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Tags ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Most Popular ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
Share: Economists at BNP Paribas Research revise their targets on EUR/USD and USD/JPY as they expect the Dollar to embark on a bearish trend. A multi-year bearish trend in the USD is underway “We expect USD strength to ultimately prove short-lived. Indeed, we believe a multi-year bearish trend in the USD is underway, with portfolio flows turning increasingly negative for the currency.” “Yields turning positive in Europe and Japan could spur repatriation by local investors; we note they have accumulated significant US fixed income exposure since 2014. With evidence of these repatriation flows appearing, we revise our USD…
Share: Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday that they are seeing a lot of inconsistent data in economic conditions, as reported by Reuters. Key takeaways “Your guess as good as mine as to what happens next in the economy.” “Unusually low unemployment a great sign.” “We are not seeing what we need to on inflation, numbers are jumping around a bit.” “Recent numbers not consistent with us bringing down inflation to our goal.” “A long way to go to get inflation back down to our goal.” Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction…
Share: Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 17: Equity markets remained on the defensive after yet more hawkish data and central bank comments on Thursday. Bond yields continued to push higher and have now ticked up nearly 50 basis points in the past two weeks. Equity markets up here as a result look very rich. Little in the way of economic data appears on Friday, but a few Fed speakers will make an entrance. Hawkish rhetoric is likely to continue meaning risk assets are likely to fall and the US Dollar remain supported ahead of the long weekend. …
Share: NZD/USD stays on the back foot and declines toward 0.6200. Nevertheless, economists at ING expect the pair to bounce back higher toward the 0.67-68 zone in the second half of the year. NZD strength relies on external factors “Our bullish view on NZD/USD for the remainder of the year is primarily a function of global factors: improved risk sentiment, positive exposure to the China reopening story, a benign USD decline.” “We target 0.67-0.68 in the second half of 2023.” See: NZD/USD to advance nicely over the course of the year – ANZ Source link
Share: Economist at UOB Group Loke Siew Ting reviews the latest BSP monetary policy meeting. Key Takeaways “Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 50bps to 6.00%, marking the eighth straight meeting of increases since May last year. It wasn’t a surprised move as we have highlighted in our Jan CPI report that both stronger-than-expected Jan inflation and 4Q22 GDP outturns have cemented the case for a more restrictive monetary policy setting. Cumulatively, BSP has tightened its monetary policy by 400bps, the most aggressive since 2000.” “The Monetary Board (MB) judged a…
Share: GBP/USD is trading at a new low since January 6 and is vulnerable to more losses, according to economists at Scotiabank. Minor rebounds are a sell “Sterling looks technically weak and prone to more losses but the chart situation is not yet definitively bearish from a longer run point of view, with Cable still trading within its recent, broad range. The danger is clear, however; losses below 1.1845 will trigger a 1.2450 double top and signal scope for a sizeable move lower in the next 1-3 months (towards 1.12 potentially).” “Trend signals are aligned bearishly for the…
Share: EUR/USD accelerates losses to the vicinity of the 1.0600 support. A sustained loss of momentum exposes a visit to the 2023 low. EUR/USD drops to multi-week lows in the 1.0610 region at the end of the week. If the selling pressure gathers extra impulse, the pair could put the round level at 1.0600 to the test in the short term. The breach of this level could see a potential test of the YTD low at 1.0481 (January 6) emerge on the horizon. So far, the bearish sentiment is expected to persist as long as the 3-month resistance…
Share: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that they are seeing some progress on inflation with demand normalizing, as reported by Reuters. Barkin further added that the US labor market is still “quite hot” and noted that the labor demand continues to run ahead of labor supply, causing businesses to remain reluctant to shed employees. “It seems as if shortages in labor supply will continue,” he said. Market reaction The US Dollar Index edged slightly lower following these comments and was last seen rising 0.27% on the day at 104.37. Source link
Share: Economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja at UOB Group assesses the latest decision by the Bank Indonesia (BI). Key Takeaways “Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark policy rate (7-Day Reverse Repo) unchanged at 5.75% in Feb MPC meeting, in line with consensus expectation.” “BI remains of the view that inflation expectations is anchored while continues to view that rupiah stability is here to stay. Specifically, BI is of the view that headline and core inflation have trended back to BI’s target range of 2-4% faster than expected.” “Today’s MPC decision marks the end of the current hiking cycle, which was…