Author: FX
It was a major week for the financial markets as traders were bombarded with top tier catalysts from all sides, including interest rate changes and leading economic indicators from around the globe. Ultimately, risk sentiment turned sour before the weekend, and when combined with an extremely hawkish ECB statement, the euro was able to snatch the top spot against the major currencies. Notable News & Economic Updates: Despite the central bank’s efforts to increase lending and loosen limits on property loans, China’s credit grew at a little slower pace than predicted in November at 2T yuan ($287 billion) vs. a…
In the past year we’ve seen the implosions of:NFTsMeme stocksCryptoTech stocksWith that, you would think retail traders would sober up. Instead, they’ve switched from hard liquor to crack cocaine in the of ultra-short-dated equity options. Here’s a chart from Goldman Sachs showing that 44% of SPX volume in the third and fourth quarter (so far) has been in options with less than 24 hours to expiration.Today is quad witching so it makes me skeptical of price action but there’s also a bigger picture story here and it ends badly.Whatever happened to investing?ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
Seeing tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilizing; not calling a peak Expects Fed to hike by more than its median forecastIt will take time for inflation to ebbMester spoke on Bloomberg TV. The Fed is going to spend the next month pushing back against the bond market. We’ll see who wins but the bond market is showing a lot of confidence so far.ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
It was a busy week and one of the things I missed was a report from the Philadelphia Fed’s research department that questioned non-farm payrolls numbers.The report focuses on the March-June period and compares the comprehensive quarterly data against the usual monthly release. It’s not a small change:In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES [non-farm payrolls report] estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. Said another way, non-farm payrolls were nearly nil from March-June.Now some of those jobs…
Risk aversion weighed on high-beta currencies like the Australian Dollar. Global central banks hiking rates and eyeing additional increases sounded recession alarms, dampening investors’ mood. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Downward biased, after tumbling from weekly highs, heading to the 50-day EMA. The Australian Dollar (AUD) slides against the US Dollar (USD) amidst a dampened market sentiment as an economic slowdown looms, after a central bank bonanza, featuring the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates by 50 bps each. Additionally, policymakers emphasized the need to do what’s needed to tackle inflation,…
Treasury yields tried to move up today but cracked back lower. That’s left:2s -8.3 bps to 4.16%10s +2 bps to 3.71%30s +2.7 bps to 3.52%The first thing to note is the inversion of the yield curve, which is still at 69 bps despite today’s bull flattening. The second thing to note is the rally in 2s and the rate of 4.16%. That’s well below the Fed’s current rate of 4.375% and well below the +5% terminal rate the FOMC forecast in the dots.In short, this is the market saying hikes aren’t coming, or if they do come, the ensuing recession…
It doesn’t take any deep analysis to see what’s coming in the auto market.During the pandemic, there was a boom in auto sales and people paid way too much. Now the bills are coming due and governments are no longer stuffing consumer wallets. On top of that, interest rates are surging so the people who already tend to borrow too much (like many car buyers) are feeling squeezed from every angle.Some are trying to unload the used cars but they’re rapidly-depreciating assets and suddenly the market for used cars is saturated. More pain is coming.But there’s also an interesting thread…
Mikhail Makarov/iStock via Getty Images Following a tumultuous year in cryptocurrency markets, the Biden administration recommended that Congress enact legislation to regulate the spot market for cryptocurrency assets that are not securities, according to the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s 2022 annual report issued Friday. It also recommended steps to “address regulatory arbitrage and an assessment of whether vertically integrated market structures can or should be accommodated under existing laws and regulations,” according to the report. While there was substantial volatility in digital assets during the year, leading to bankruptcies of Celsius Network, FTX, and BlockFi, “the crypto-assets ecosystem did not…
> Baker Hughes oil rig count -5 to 620 The weekly Baker Hughes rig count Oil rig count -5 to 620Rig count +1 to 154Total rig count down -4 to 776ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Tags ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Most Popular ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Representations of cryptocurrencies are seen in front of displayed FTX logo and decreasing stock graph in this illustration taken November 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo By Dietrich Knauth (Reuters) – A U.S. judge overseeing the bankruptcy of FTX said on Friday that he will allow media companies to make their case that the collapsed crypto exchange must publicly disclose the names of its customers.U.S. Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey in Delaware said the New York Times, Dow Jones, Bloomberg and the Financial Times could present their arguments on requiring FTX to disclose customer names…