Author: FX

I don’t know why markets are so optimistic about inflationInflation risk are still to the upsideI don’t see a dramatic slowdown in labor market yetWe are resolute to get inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures…

USDCHF between 100 and 200 hour MAsThe USDCHF moved higher today and in the process moved up to test the 200 hour MA at 0.93362 (green line in the chart above). The price high reached 0.9335 and backed off. The current price is at 0.9322.Earlier today, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA and a downward sloping trend line, and then the swing lows and highs from December between 0.9311 adn 0.9325. THe price is back in that range. A move below would have traders looking back toward the 100 hour MA.Buyers have been more dominant today, but the…

We feel a slowdown coming and we still have a long way to goWe are far away from price stability goalThere isn’t much of a signal in these comments.More:My inflation projection has gone upGoods inflation has been falling, that’s what we’ve been hoping forSame can be said of house-price inflationCore services ex housing inflation is still quite elevatedServices inflation usually takes quite a bit longer for that kind of inflation to come down, as it’s related to the labor marketThis is in line with what Powell said, which is usually the case with Daly.ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link

This is a small amount of oil but it could be a big signal. The US is buying back 3 million barrels to refill the SPR for February. The US will also offer 2 million barrels to meet refinery needs due to the Keystone XL shutdown.The report is from Reuters, citing a senior energy dept official.This year they’ve released 180 million barrels.Update: Here’s the full announcement. WTI crude is still down $1.688 to $74.42 today.ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link

On the day:Stoxx 600 -1.1%German DAX -0.8%France’s CAC, -1.1%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.3%Spain’s Ibex -1.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%On the week:Stoxx 600 -3.2%German DAX -3.4%France’s CAC, -3.3%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.8%Spain’s Ibex -1.9%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.5%Optimism was building early in the week but it completely collapsed after the Fed and ECB.German DAX dailyADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW Source link

It’s cold in Europe right now and that’s going to lead to another big week of draws in natural gas supplies. The good news is that inventories are still high and that’s buffeted by some LNG ships off the coast of Spain.Where it could start to get complicated is China coming back into the mix. According to Platts, China issued tenders to buy LNG cargoes starting in Feb and running through Dec 2023. Those are the first incremental buys since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war and is another signal regarding China’s reopening.This is the important chart, as it shows…

The USD/JPY failed to gain traction despite rising US Treasury yields. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Remains upward biased, though a pullback toward 136.00 is on the cards. The USD/JPY fell after testing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 137.88 and dropped below the 137.00 mark in the North American session amid a risk-off impulse. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 136.63, below its opening price by 0.84%, after hitting a high of 137.80. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook From a daily chart perspective, the USD/JPY remains range-bound, within the boundaries of the 20-day EMA and the…

The AUD/USD pair dropped sharply on Thursday and it stabilized slightly below 0.6700 on Friday. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the AUD/USD pair will move lower over the next months. They forecast it at 0.66 in three months and at 0.65 in six months.  Key Quotes:  “Lower-than-expected inflation prints from the US, consequent speculation on Fed possibly easing its monetary policy earlier and the turnaround in Chinese Covid-policies have continued to support AUD/USD.” “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates again by 25bp in the December meeting. While RBA signalled that rate hikes would continue in 2023, markets…

USDJPY falls to the 100/200 hour MA targetThe flight into the safety of the JPY is continuing with the USDJPY moving lower as stocks keep most of their declines. Looking at the hourly chart, the USDJPY tried to extend above a swing area going back to November 28 between 137.48 and 137.85 and the 50% of the range since November 21 during trading yesterday, but failed. It was about USD buying yesterday despite stock declines. Today the focus seems to be more on the “risk off” flows (flight to safety of the JPY). That is the story I am telling…

The USD/JPY pair is about to end the week hovering around 136.50/80, near the same level it had a week ago. Analysts from Danske Bank forecast the pair at 137 in a month, at 139 in three months, and then to move lower, reaching 128 in twelve months.  Key Quotes: “Upside risks to USD/JPY come from a continued pressure for higher global yields, although intervention will likely cap sudden moves higher. If global slowdown turns into a more severe recession and speculators unwind short JPY positions, flatter yield curves and cheaper energy can quickly become a tailwind for JPY.” “The…