Author: FX
Market players were all over the place this week as thin trading, bank jitters, and recession concerns dominated price action in the first half of the week. Gold and JPY flexed their safe-haven muscles while “riskier” assets like equities, crude oil, and crypto took beatings. And then the price action got hot as the RBA, Fed, and ECB published their latest monetary policy decisions. While all three major central banks raised their interest rates, a lot of traders still considered them “dovish.” This is probably why risk assets eventually recovered some of their intraweek losses. Notable News & Economic Updates:…
Share: The strong downtrend in USD/MXN continues as emerging market currencies advance against the US Dollar. USD/MXN eyes 17.5000 support; bullish potential remains limited, with key resistance at 17.9492 and 18.2263. The USD/MXN fell to fresh six-year lows of 17.7462, hit in the middle of the New York session even though the US economy revealed upbeat data, which failed to strengthen the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair is trading at 17.7480, down 0.92%. A goodish employment report in the United States (US) improved market sentiment. Therefore, high beta currencies, alongside emerging markets…
It was unemployment day and the data was mixed despite the higher than expected gains of 253K for the current week. The month gain was comfortably higher than the 180K estimate. However, job growth has moderated after including the revised figures for its February and March figures. Those revisions lowered the two months by 149K, taking the average monthly job gains over the past three months to 222,000, compared to 524,000 a year ago. The average is the lowest since January 2021. On the strong side was the unemployment rate which dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, matching its multi-decade low,…
Share: USD/CAD bears stay strong and the bulls are pressured to below a key structure. A move to 1.3320 is eyed for the sessions ahead. USD/CAD is heading lower on the day and is down some 1.17% as we head towards the forex close in New York. The pair has been pressured below 1.3500 to a low of 1.3371 on Friday. There are eyes on a move back into the supply, however, as the pair has painted an M-formation on the charts as the following daily chart illustrates: USD/CAD daily chart The price, however, has taken out a…
The major US indices are closing sharply higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way. A Goldilocks scenario where the growth can continue with hopefully lower inflation help contribute to the buying across the board. The Dow industrial average had its best day since January 6. The S&P index has 4th best percentage gain this year. The NASDAQ index rose 2.25% and traded to the highest level since February 2 (the high price for 2023The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average rose 546.75 points or 1.65% at 33674.39 S&P index rose 75.05 points or 1.85% at 4136.28NASDAQ index rose 269…
Share: XAU/USD plunges, shedding 1.68% as rate hikes and soaring bond yields dull gold’s allure. US Nonfarm Payrolls beat estimates with 253K new jobs, pushing Treasury bond yields higher. Gold demand dips in Q1 2023, with the central bank and Chinese consumer purchases offset by investor buying. Gold price slides sharply as the XAU/USD failed to hold to its gains nearby the year-to-date (YTD) high at $2081.46, as two major central banks increased rates, boosting bond yields. Additionally, a better-than-expected jobs report in the United States (US), triggered a jump on US T-bond yields. At the time of…
Share: The US official employment report showed better-than-expected numbers with payrolls rising by 253,000 above the 179,000 expected. Analysts at RBC Economics Research point out that the solid momentum in employment data is not expected to continue later on this year, given signs of moderating hiring demand. Key quotes: “Despite ultra-low unemployment rates, signs of weakening labour demand continue to emerge elsewhere – job openings have been trending lower since last spring. And slower quit rates are flagging less confidence in hiring conditions among workers.” “Solid momentum in U.S. employment reports not expected to continue later on this…
Share: Analysts at MUFG Bank point out the Norwegian Krone could rebound after a heavy sell-off. They have a trade idea of shorting USD/NOK at 10.620, with a target at 10.150. Key Quotes: “The NOK has become deeply undervalued and out of line with short-term fundamental drivers such as the price of oil, investor risk sentiment and yield spreads. The Norges Bank has signalled greater sensitivity to NOK weakness at this week’s policy meeting. If NOK weakness persists, it will encourage the Norges Bank to hike rates further than planned. The Norges Bank is already planning to keep…
With so many top tier catalysts this week, it was no surprise that volatility spiked beyond the average ranges and the steady stream of catalysts gave us some choppy price action. But we’re pretty happy with the week as more often than not, our strategies anticipated the proper short-term direction, and our fundamental filters kept us out of unfavorable moves. Forex Setup of the Week: Downtrend Continuation for AUD/CHF? – May 1, 2023 AUD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView On Monday, we spotted a textbook technical setup on AUD/CHF, looking to play the likely rise in volatility for the Aussie…
GBPUSD tests swing area high from April to June 2022.The GBPUSD has reached the high today of 1.2652. The current price is trading at 1.2642. At the high, the price got closer to its swing high going back to May 8, 2022 near 1.2665. A move above that level would have traders targeting this 61.8% retracement at 1.27605. On the downside, traders will be watching the low of the swing area near 1.25987 as close support.Buyers are making a play into resistance. You have to go through resistance to get extend higher, but it may also slow the rally or…