Author: FX
In markets there is often a ‘risk-off/risk-on’ dynamic around economic news.At the moment, that’s shifted to more of a war-on/war-off footing, or at least a shift in how long the war might take.This view is winning out at the moment:1) The US tried to talk to Iran but Iran refused and is determined to make the US feel the pain of $200 oil via closing the Strait for a couple months2) The US is going to Plan B, which involves using navy escorts to allow passage through the StraitThe main evidence for the second part is that Pentagon is moving…
Canada just posted its worst jobs report since the pandemic.The 83,900 jobs losses were the worst in a month since 2022 and — worse yet, there were 108K full-time jobs lost. That’s led to a slump in the Canadian dollar and boosted USD/CAD by 90 pips to 1.3728. That’s the highest for the pair since March 7.USD/CAD dailyThe report led to the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% from 6.5% but that metric is worth some perspective as it had been above 7% in the middle of last year.Canada unemployment rateLooking at the chart, it’s not clear if this is the…
The major European stock indices close the day lower led by France’s CAC with a decline of -0.91%. A look at the closing levels for the day shows: German DAX -0.65%France’s CAC -0.91%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.43%Spain’s Ibex -0.47%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.31% For the trading week, the results were mixed. Looking at the weekly changes German DAX fell -0.66%France’s CAC fell -1.03%. UK’s FTSE 100 fell -0.23%.Spain’s Ibex fell -0.09%Italy’s FTSE MIB eked out a 0.37% gain. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source link
The average rate of 30 year mortgage has shot up to 6.41%. That is the highest rate since September of last year and comes after the rate dipped below the 6.00% level to 5.98% during the week of February 23. The spike in rates is following the rise in the 10 year note. The 10 year yield has moved up from 3.926% to the current rate of 4.283% since the start of the Iranian war. Looking at the weekly chart, the yield has moved back above its 100 week moving average at 4.248% (blue line on the chart below). Last…
GBPUSD breaks lower as sellers regain momentumThe GBPUSD is once again pushing lower and trading to new session lows, extending the bearish momentum seen earlier in the day. The pair had already broken below the previous low for the year at 1.3252, but the initial move lacked follow-through and briefly corrected higher.That corrective bounce, however, proved short-lived. Sellers quickly stepped back in and reversed the modest recovery, pushing the price back to the downside with increasing momentum. The renewed selling pressure suggests traders are once again leaning toward the bearish side of the market.The pair is currently trading near 1.3235,…
The WSJ reports that the US is moving additional warships to the Middle East, citing three US officials. It says that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit.Such a unit would typically include several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said. The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said.On that ship:She is a America-class amphibious assault ship — essentially a flat-deck vessel…
EURUSD falls to new 2026 lows before corrective bounceThe EURUSD moved sharply lower earlier in the day, extending its bearish momentum and breaking to new lows for 2026. In the process, the pair also traded to its lowest level since August 2025, highlighting the continued downside pressure in the currency pair.The move lower forced the price through two key support levels from November 2025. The first level came in at 1.14912, the low from November 21, followed by the November 5 low at 1.14687. Those levels had served as an important support area for months, but once broken, they helped…
TD Securities analysts expect the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to show relative resilience versus non-USD peers thanks to Oil links, lower beta to risk-off and cleaner positioning. However, they still anticipate USD strength and see USD/CAD moving higher as geopolitical uncertainty and risk premia stay elevated, with BoC communication not a major driver.CAD resilience but USD/CAD upside risk”As the conflict approaches its third week, CAD has continued to demonstrate relative resilience. With a more dovish assessment of recent data flow balanced by hawkish risks posed by higher energy prices, we expect BoC to strike a cautious tone and keep all options…
Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the Iranian regime was “about to surrender.”That stands in stark contrast to the real situation on the ground, where we continue to see daily strikes and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The report added that Trump’s remarks to the G7 leaders were characterized by his…
Commerzbank economists Jörg Krämer and Marco Wagner argue that the ECB is likely to keep its deposit rate at 2.0% next week and, in their main scenario of a short Middle East war, throughout 2026. They highlight futures pricing for at least one hike, but stress that inflation near 3% and a dovish Governing Council argue against tightening, even if Oil stays elevated.ECB weighs war shock against doves”The ECB will leave its key interest rates unchanged next week. The futures markets are pricing in more than one rate hike for the remainder of the year. However, in our main scenario…