Author: FX

Markets expect to add more than 200k jobs in November. According to the FedWatch Tool, the Feds are considering a lower rate hike for December. Dollar bears could accelerate amidst the weaker NFP reading. December is generally a quiet month for the markets, but there is a solid risk appetite as we head into the December NFP report. What to expect? The market anticipates that the US economy will generate another 200k jobs in November, following growth of 261k in October. Additionally, the unemployment rate improved from 3.7% to 3.6%. It should be highlighted that the 200k more jobs, while…

It’s NFP Friday, people! Will Uncle Sam’s official jobs report seal the deal for a Fed pivot and this USD/CHF triangle breakdown? Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/USD’s ascending triangle ahead of the core PCE price index and ISM manufacturing PMI. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play! And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions: Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data: U.S. Oct core PCE price index slowed from 0.5% to 0.2% vs. 0.3% m/m forecast U.S. Challenger job cuts jumped 416.5% y/y in Nov U.S.…

Trading Leveraged Products is risky The USD Index holds at lows not seen since August & June at 104.50 and significantly below the 200-day MA at 105.40. Weaker PCE inflation, lower JOLTS numbers, but tempered by a miss for Weekly Claims all added to pressure for yields too. 2/10 yr remains inverted by 71 bps. Stocks finished flat, Asian markets also flat except Nikkei (-1.59%) as JPY soars. All eyes on NFP; Consensus is a headline of 200k, less than 120k-150k and the USD could slip further, over 250-300k could lift the Greenback. EUR –…

We’re approaching another critical juncture now in USD/JPY and as mentioned here yesterday, the break of daily support at 137.65 to 138.45 is now putting scrutiny on the 135.00 level as well as its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 134.49.Sellers are looking adamant to push the agenda as the dollar selling picks up with Treasuries also rallying strongly. In that lieu, just be wary that we are also hitting a key technical crossroads in 10-year yields – which is approaching its 100-day moving average at 3.48%, now hovering around 3.53% today.That matches up (sort of) with the key technical…

GBP/USD remains sidelined after rising to the highest level in five months. Overbought RSI, two-month-old resistance line challenge further upside. Bear need validation from the convergence of 200-DMA, previous resistance line from late June. GBP/USD treads water around mid-1.2200s after rising to the highest level since late June the previous day. In doing so the Cable pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key US employment data while also justifying the price-negative technical signals. Among them, overbought conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, gain major attention as the quote struggles after a two-day…

Who’s up for some comdoll trading today? If you are, then you better not miss what’s cooking on USD/CAD and NZD/JPY’s charts! Which setup will you more likely trade? USD/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart The U.S. dollar has done a great job of recovering from its November lows, climbing from the 1.3225 zone all the way to the 1.3600 psychological handle against the Loonie. USD/CAD has dipped back down, though, and is now trading just above the 1.3400 levels. As you can see, USD/CAD’s current prices line up with not only an ascending channel support but also the 100 SMA on…

Many traders say that it is the mental aspect of trading that causes traders to lose rather than the technical aspect of trading and I agree with this notion. Traders often lose not because they have a losing strategy but because they react to price movements emotionally. It is often the psychological aspect of trading that causes traders to make mistakes rather than the skill of the trader himself. The two main psychological reasons why traders make mistakes are fear and greed. Many traders would agree that they made mistakes usually because they fail to cash in on good profits…

Congress has mandated the sale of 147 million barrels of oil in the 2024-27 period to pay for infrastructure and other spending but now those sales could be reversed.The Biden administration is seeking to cancel or delay those plans, which start with 35 million barrels in 2024.It will be interesting to see where the oil market stands at that time but with prices at $81 now, China offline and producers showing discipline, I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to refill the reserve. As for this, the pace of sales was so slow that it’s hard to say…

US Dollar remains on the defensive, spurred by the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping to the contractionary territory. Inflation in the United States remained unchanged, while unemployment claims fell. The Australian Dollar got bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as traders eye RBA’s Governor Lowe. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Could test 0.7000 if the AUD/USD clears the 200-DMA. The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances in the New York session but retraces after hitting a new two-month high around 0.6840s as sentiment shifted sour. United States (US) economic data portrays a gloomy economic outlook while increasing borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve (Fed) would…

Introduction to the Fibo Bar Indicator The previous periods price range can often represent a price swing. It is common to see a scenario wherein the low of the previous period is a swing low and the high of the previous day is its corresponding swing high. In these scenarios traders can use the range of the previous day as a basis for plotting a Fibonacci tool. The Fibo Bar Indicator is a trading based on the concept of using the previous period’s range as the basis for the Fibonacci levels. What is the Fibo Bar Indicator? The Fibo Bar…