Author: FX

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTSHow will the RBA react to the recent market re-pricing?Australian and US inflation data in focus.AUD/USD death cross, bear flag and client sentiment suggest AUD weakness to come. Recommended by Warren Venketas Get Your Free AUD Forecast AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROPThe Australian dollar heads into next week after a pretty muted week in terms of price volatility against the U.S. dollar. Thus far, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been grappling with data both locally and internationally after they decided to pause rate in the previous interest rate meet. The latest RBA minutes indicated that the…

© Reuters. Used boxes of Mifepristone, the first pill in a medical abortion, line a trash can at Alamo Women’s Clinic in Carbondale, Illinois, U.S., April 20, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein By Andrew Chung and John Kruzel WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday blocked new restrictions set by lower courts on a widely used abortion pill, delivering a victory to President Joe Biden’s administration as it defends broad access to the drug in the latest fierce legal battle over reproductive rights in the United States. The justices, in a brief order, granted emergency requests by the Justice Department and…

Share: S&P Global PMI figures ease recessionary fears, boost US economy. Traders’ moods fluctuating to risk-on/off dominated the New York session. EU’s PMI results are mixed; manufacturing activity shranks, while Services and Composite Indices exceed expectations. Markets remain cautious amid uncertain rate outlooks from the Fed and the ECB. The EUR/USD prepares to finish the week on a higher note, though it remains below the 1.1000 figure, albeit economic data from the United States (US) bolstered the US Dollar (USD). However, late into the Wall Street close, the greenback lost strength, US equities rose, and the Euro  (EUR)…

This week’s inflation and labor data releases put the spotlight back on monetary policy trends and their impact on economic growth. Unfortunately for risk assets, this week’s data releases pointed to a prolonged period of high interest rates even amidst signs of weaker economic activity and only marginal inflation deceleration. Safe-haven assets like CHF gained ground while “riskier” bets like Bitcoin, crude oil, NZD, and CAD saw intraweek downtrends. Notable News & Economic Updates: Chinese economy grew by 4.5% quarter-over-year in Q2 vs. estimated 4.0% expansion and previous 2.9% growth figure, buoyed by easing of COVID-19 restrictions Reserve Bank of…

Forex volatility picked up this week thanks to top-tier economic releases, leading traders to re-price their monetary policy expectations. The U.S. dollar was all over the charts as traders simultaneously priced in higher Fed interest rates AND maybe a not-so-soft landing and U.S. recession. The British pound took the top spot after hot CPI data from the U.K. sparks rate hike speculation. Meanwhile, a combo of notable slowdowns in Canada and New Zealand’s inflation rates and risk aversion pummeled the Canadian and New Zealand dollars to end the week at the bottom of the pack. USD Pairs Overlay of USD Pairs:…

Share: Silver price retreats after hitting daily high on upbeat US economic data. Upward momentum for XAG/USD remains despite recent losses. XAG/USD may drop unless it holds above a critical support level. Silver price retraces after hitting a daily high of $25.37, last seen at around $25.05, as US Treasury bond yields edged up, following upbeat US economic data. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $25.05, down 0.83%. XAG/USD Price Analysis XAG/USD remains upward biased, although it posted back-to-back days of losses, led by Thursday’s price action, which printed a doji, followed by a…

The Fed blackout starts at midnight but there’s always a race to get in the last word:Welcomes moderation in housing-related inflationHigh inflation as become embedded in the economyJob market still strong but there are signs of coolingInflation pressures have been abating but core prices still stickyMarch PCE inflation likely to moderate to 4%Path back to 2% likely to be uneven and bumpyWe’re trying to figure out where the Fed needs to stop with rate risesContinued economic strength and slower disinflation could push the Fed to do moreMonetary policy moving into a more uncertain phaseThese are relatively dovish comments and work…

It’s Friiiiyay! ? But before we head off to the weekend, here’s a quick recap of this week’s feature FX strategies, how the price action played out, and lessons to take away. Forex Setup of the Week: GBP/USD – April 16, 2023 GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView On Monday, we took a closer look at GBP/USD’s uptrend and how it was retesting the bottom of the rising channel pattern. Our assumption was that if U.K. economic updates came in better than expected, this could draw in Sterling buyers. The pair actually broke below the channel, but the bulls came back…

Markets:S&P 500 flat at 4155WTI crude oil up $0.43 to $77.80US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 3.568%Gold down $22 to $1982EUR leads, CAD lagsThe daily changes in the largest currencies on Friday were minimal but the day wasn’t without drama. In particular, the US PMI from S&P Global led to a sharp rally in the US dollar, including 100 pips in USD/JPY and half that in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The report was surprisingly strong including high numbers on new orders and price pressures that few people saw coming.Some skepticism set in after the numbers though and the dollar move…

Share: Data released on Friday showed retail sales in Canada dropped 0.2% in February, a better-than-expected number but excluding auto fell 0.7%, more than forecast. Analysts at CIBC consider that the sluggishness in ex-auto spending is a sign that higher interest rates are having an impact. They see the Bank of Canada on hold for the rest of the year.  Key quotes:  “The start of the year surge in retail spending appears to be gradually fading, with a modest 0.2% decline in February (consensus -0.7%) estimated to be followed by a sharper 1.4% drop in March.” “While the…