Author: FX

Fed Governor speaking for the first time since November The final Fed speaker will be speaking at the top of the hour. Federal Reserve Governor CHristopher Waller will be speaking. Waller – being a Governor – has a permanent vote on the FOMC board. He has last spoken back in November. So hearing his views now will be key. He tends to tilt to the more hawkish side increasing his importance especially if he is less hawkish.Given the storyline from many that the Fed has more work to do, is concerned about service inflation and is also concerned about full…

Atlanta Fed GDPNow history for Q4 growthThe Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth came in unchanged at 3.5% after the existing home sales today. IN their own words:”The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 remains 3.5 percent on January 20. The nowcast was unchanged after rounding following this morning’s report from the National Association of Realtors.”The estimate is the final one ahead of the Advanced GDP which will be released next week on Wednesday. The estimates from 22 forecasters see growth at 1.2% to 3.6%, with the median…

Viorika Q4 capital offerings by U.S. banks decreased 50% on a quarterly basis to nearly $12.63B, according to data by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Preferred equity offerings declined by 99.1% Q/Q, common equity offerings by 81.6% and subordinated debt offerings by 82.0%, the data showed. The capital raised through preferred equity offerings fell to $19.5M in Q4 from $2.23B in the prior quarter, and from common equity instruments to $171.4M from $931.1M. U.S. banks raised $1.17B in capital through subordinated debt instruments during Q4, compared to $6.49B in Q3. Comparatively, senior debt offerings performed better, with a Q4 decline of…

The US stocks are bulled up today, with the Nasdaq leading the way in the major indices with a gain of 1.48%. The riskier stocks as measured by Cathy Woods ARK Innovation fund is doing even better with a gain of 2.85%. Typically, lower yields help that flow, but if you look at the US yields today, they are up nicely. The 2 year yield is up 7.3 basis points at 4.191%. The 10 year yield is at 3.49% up nearly 10 basis points on the day. The move higher in the 10 year comes after the low yesterday tested…

Next week, the Bank of Canada will have its monetary policy meeting. Analysts at TD Securities expect a 25 basis points rate hike in line with market consensus. They point out the Canadian Dollar (CAD) may not receive much direction bias from the meeting. Key quotes: “We look for the BoC to hike by 25bp in January, and we expect this will be the last hike this cycle (though the forward-looking component will not preclude future hikes).” “While this is expected to be the last hike, the CAD may not receive much directional bias from this meeting as the curve…

NASDAQ is moving back above its 100 day moving averageThe NASDAQ index is leading the way to the upside today with a 153.47 point rise or 1.41% at 11005. The high price has reached 11018.02. Looking at the daily chart, the falling 100 day moving average comes in at 11000.95. With the price back above that moving average, it helps to tilt the buys more to the upside from a technical perspective.Recall from earlier this week the price closed above that 100 day moving average level on both Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday a new high was made for the…

Data released on Friday showed retail sales in Canada dropped 0.1% in November, an improvement from the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% slide. Analysts at CIBC point out that some of the detail wasn’t as encouraging, and the underlying trend still shows retail sales moving broadly sideways in volume terms. They expected the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Key quotes: “On a more positive note, the advance estimate for December showed a gain in overall sales of 0.5%, which should look even better in volume terms given the sharp decline in gasoline…

US Existing Home Sales continue to deteriorate and weigh on the US Dollar. Retail Sales in Canada dropped, though improved in November, compared with October. Fed’s Patrick Harker supports 25 bps rate hike increases to the Federal Funds rate. USD/CAD is registering moderate losses during the North American session, falling from daily highs nearby 1.3500 after the release of US and Canadian data, bolstering the Loonie (CAD), which is trimming some of its weekly losses. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD exchange hand is at 1.3418, below its opening price. US Existing Home Sales deteriorated, while Canada’s Retail Sales…

The major European indices are closing the day with gains led by the Spanish Ibex which rose by 1.42%. The German DAX is up 0.76%. The final numbers are showing:German DAX, +0.76%France’s CAC, +0.63%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s Ibex +1.42%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.30%For the trading week, the gains today did not recover the losses mostly from yesterday’s decline:German DAX -0.35%France’s CAC -0.39%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.94%Spain’s Ibex did close with a gain of 0.41%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4%Although lower this week, the major European indices Indices Stock market indices represents an index that measures a particular stock market or a segment of the…

Japanese Yen among worst G10 performers after BoJ status quo. US Dollar mixed between higher yields and risk sentiment. USD/JPY attempts recovery, still limited below the 20-day SMA. The USD/JPY moved off daily highs during the American session on Friday, pulling back under 130.00. The pair peaked at 130.60, the highest level in two days. The greenback weakened late on Friday amid an improvement in risk appetite. Regarding economic data, on Friday the National Association of Realtors said US Existing Home sales fell to 4.02 million (annual rate) in December, above the market consensus of 3.95 million. Earlier, Japan reported…