Author: FX
Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision, as widely expected. Chia notes the RBA sees inflation returning to the midpoint of its 2–3% target only by late 2027. While the base case is for no further hikes, the risk is skewed to another increase in Q4 if demand and energy prices remain problematic.RBA holds but keeps hike option”The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, as we and the market had expected, in a unanimous decision (see RBA – Holding its nerve). The RBA reiterated…
Prior was 4.09m (revised to 4.13m)Sales -1.7% vs -2.4% prior (revised to -1.4%)Home prices +2.0% y/yMedian price $434,100Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.6 months priorThe housing market is in a steady state that isn’t helped by high mortgage rates due to rising Treasury yields. There is some steady growth in that chart but when you discount it against CPI, there is a slight-but-steady improvement in affordability. The key question next is what will happen to borrowing rates from here. There is also — in some sense — a ticking time bomb in the US housing market as construction hasn’t kept…
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley examines Japanese inflation dynamics and Bank of Japan policy. The report notes elevated Oil prices and supply risks, but stresses BoJ’s focus on core inflation and wage-driven pressures after decades of deflation. It highlights BoJ’s warning that core CPI could exceed 2%, raising prospects of a rate hike around September or October.Core CPI, wage growth and BoJ outlook”While a loosening in the labour market reduces the chances of second order price effects, elevated oil prices may still push various G10 central banks into more hawkish policy positions this year. Not only does the continued…
July CPI could reset Fed expectations, with monthly core inflation and shelter likely deciding whether the dollar gets its jolt. Source link
UK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of transition to improved labour market data !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz Source link
Dow Jones futures decline by 0.11% to trade around 54,000 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are steady around 7,770 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.12%, trading near 29,770.US stock futures are mixed as traders adopt a cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Rising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions have fueled inflation fears, leading to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise interest rates sooner than expected, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in…
Heads up: RBA monetary policy decision at the bottom of the hour !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz Source link
The broader cryptocurrency market shows mixed sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $64,000 under institutional selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index at 37, down from 40 the previous day, signals renewed bearish pressure. Meanwhile, Curve DAO (CRV) and Internet Computer (ICP) continue to extend their gains so far this week, emerging as top performers over the last 24 hours.Fear and Greed Index. Source: CoinMarketCapTechnical outlook: Bitcoin risks losing $64,000Bitcoin trades near $64,000 at press time on Tuesday, following a bearish close the previous day, which is linked to MARA Holdings selling off 23,093 Bitcoin for $1.627 billion in H1…
USD/JPY is rebounding after intervention, but US CPI, the 160.00 resistance, and renewed yen intervention risk could decide what comes next. Source link
Gold has been on a tear lately, but the precious metal is closing in on a major resistance zone that previously held as support. Are sellers about to hop in? Check out these inflection points on the daily time frame! Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Faster with TradingView After selling off for the first half of this year, gold looked ready to turn things around as it pulled higher from the $4,000 major psychological mark and has been rallying over the past week. However, the precious metal could hit a major roadblock as it approaches the former support zone around the…