Author: FX

When crude oil prices spiked past $83 a barrel this week due to supply threats in the Strait of Hormuz, the Canadian dollar (CAD) began outperforming most major currencies. This occurred because Canada’s status as a top global oil exporter means its currency naturally tends to strengthen when energy prices rise. If you are wondering why the CAD is suddenly leaving the euro (EUR) and Japanese yen (JPY) in the dust—while still fighting to keep pace with the U.S. dollar (USD)—let’s break down the mechanics. Conflict in the Middle East Over the past few days, escalating geopolitical conflict in the…

The escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant supply concerns, sending crude oil prices on a vertical tear. Prices have surged over 8.5% in today’s session, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-2025 as the market tests the critical $77.57 resistance zone.While sellers have initially defended this level, a clean break above it would likely shift the market’s focus toward the $80 psychological handle as the next primary target.Respecting the TrendWhen a market enters a high-conviction trend, traders must prioritize price action over personal bias. Trends are typically fast, directional, and frequently overshoot what feels “reasonable.”To manage risk…

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is monitoring markets with “utmost vigilance” and stands ready to act against sharp FX moves as USD/JPY trades above 157. Authorities stress coordination with overseas counterparts and focus on securing energy supplies.Tokyo signals readiness to act on FX”Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has warned that authorities are monitoring financial markets with utmost vigilance and will take all necessary measures in response to sharp FX movements, as volatility intensifies following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.””The yen traded at around 157.52 per dollar on Tuesday, after breaching…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI showed how wrong the market has been in being so dovish on the economy. The data was hot for the second consecutive month, so the one-off narrative was put to rest. Moreover, the prices index jumped to the highest level since 2022, in another sign…

The break and retest isn’t just some fancy indicator gimmick. It’s rooted in basic market structure that traders have relied on for decades. When price breaks through a significant level, that level doesn’t disappear. Smart money often tests these zones before continuing, creating a second chance entry for traders who missed the initial move. Here’s what happens: Support at 1.0800 gets broken, price drops to 1.0750, then rallies back up to retest 1.0800 from below. That former support now acts as resistance. The indicator highlights these zones automatically, saving traders from manually drawing lines and monitoring multiple timeframes. The MT4…

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers, slides 0.3% to near 1.3360 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair tumbles as risk-off market sentiment is prompted due to the war in the Middle East between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, which has dampened the demand for riskier assets. Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.35%-0.03%0.03%0.04%0.31%0.22%EUR-0.21%0.15%-0.26%-0.18%-0.17%0.09%0.00%GBP-0.35%-0.15%-0.38%-0.31%-0.31%-0.04%-0.13%JPY0.03%0.26%0.38%0.08%0.09%0.34%0.26%CAD-0.03%0.18%0.31%-0.08%0.00%0.27%0.17%AUD-0.04%0.17%0.31%-0.09%-0.01%0.26%0.17%NZD-0.31%-0.09%0.04%-0.34%-0.27%-0.26%-0.09%CHF-0.22%-0.00%0.13%-0.26%-0.17%-0.17%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major…

An upside surprise in Australia’s GDP would add fuel to the Aussie’s bullish momentum, already supported by rising gold prices and hawkish RBA remarks. Our Event Guide for Australia’s GDP Report suggests the risks lean to the upside, with business and trade activity showing improvement. But if GDP misses, traders may use the disappointment to pull back from recent AUD strength. In that case, pairs like EUR/AUD and AUD/CHF could offer tactical pullback opportunities. Source link

Paramount’s $110 billion Warner Bros deal poised to win FCC backing, FT reports Source link

Can Australia’s GDP figure confirm the possibility of another RBA interest rate hike? Our Event Guide for Australia’s GDP Report points out that investment and trade activity picked up during Q4 2025, likely contributing to stronger economic expansion. Here’s what I’m watching on AUD/USD and GBP/AUD in this scenario. Source link

Expectations for a March RBA rate hike are running pretty high these days, so will the upcoming Australian GDP release cast doubts or seal the deal? Here’s what to look out for. Source link