Author: FX

It was a busy week and one of the things I missed was a report from the Philadelphia Fed’s research department that questioned non-farm payrolls numbers.The report focuses on the March-June period and compares the comprehensive quarterly data against the usual monthly release. It’s not a small change:In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES [non-farm payrolls report] estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. Said another way, non-farm payrolls were nearly nil from March-June.Now some of those jobs…

Risk aversion weighed on high-beta currencies like the Australian Dollar. Global central banks hiking rates and eyeing additional increases sounded recession alarms, dampening investors’ mood. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Downward biased, after tumbling from weekly highs, heading to the 50-day EMA. The Australian Dollar (AUD) slides against the US Dollar (USD) amidst a dampened market sentiment as an economic slowdown looms, after a central bank bonanza, featuring the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates by 50 bps each. Additionally,  policymakers emphasized the need to do what’s needed to tackle inflation,…

Treasury yields tried to move up today but cracked back lower. That’s left:2s -8.3 bps to 4.16%10s +2 bps to 3.71%30s +2.7 bps to 3.52%The first thing to note is the inversion of the yield curve, which is still at 69 bps despite today’s bull flattening. The second thing to note is the rally in 2s and the rate of 4.16%. That’s well below the Fed’s current rate of 4.375% and well below the +5% terminal rate the FOMC forecast in the dots.In short, this is the market saying hikes aren’t coming, or if they do come, the ensuing recession…

It doesn’t take any deep analysis to see what’s coming in the auto market.During the pandemic, there was a boom in auto sales and people paid way too much. Now the bills are coming due and governments are no longer stuffing consumer wallets. On top of that, interest rates are surging so the people who already tend to borrow too much (like many car buyers) are feeling squeezed from every angle.Some are trying to unload the used cars but they’re rapidly-depreciating assets and suddenly the market for used cars is saturated. More pain is coming.But there’s also an interesting thread…

Mikhail Makarov/iStock via Getty Images Following a tumultuous year in cryptocurrency markets, the Biden administration recommended that Congress enact legislation to regulate the spot market for cryptocurrency assets that are not securities, according to the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s 2022 annual report issued Friday. It also recommended steps to “address regulatory arbitrage and an assessment of whether vertically integrated market structures can or should be accommodated under existing laws and regulations,” according to the report. While there was substantial volatility in digital assets during the year, leading to bankruptcies of Celsius Network, FTX, and BlockFi, “the crypto-assets ecosystem did not…

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Representations of cryptocurrencies are seen in front of displayed FTX logo and decreasing stock graph in this illustration taken November 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo By Dietrich Knauth (Reuters) – A U.S. judge overseeing the bankruptcy of FTX said on Friday that he will allow media companies to make their case that the collapsed crypto exchange must publicly disclose the names of its customers.U.S. Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey in Delaware said the New York Times, Dow Jones, Bloomberg and the Financial Times could present their arguments on requiring FTX to disclose customer names…

S&P Global PMIs for the United States sound the alarms of an upcoming recession. Federal Reserve tightening hit consumers while the labor market remains stable. USD/CAD Price Analysis: A decisive break above 1.3700 can pave the way for a test of 1.3800. After hitting a daily low of 1.3617, the USD/CAD climbs toward the 1.3700 figure in the North American session after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to raise rates by 50 bps last Wednesday and sparked recessionary woes. Therefore, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3684, above its opening price by 0.16%. Fed’s policy begins to hit lagging indicators…

I don’t know why markets are so optimistic about inflationInflation risk are still to the upsideI don’t see a dramatic slowdown in labor market yetWe are resolute to get inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures…

USDCHF between 100 and 200 hour MAsThe USDCHF moved higher today and in the process moved up to test the 200 hour MA at 0.93362 (green line in the chart above). The price high reached 0.9335 and backed off. The current price is at 0.9322.Earlier today, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA and a downward sloping trend line, and then the swing lows and highs from December between 0.9311 adn 0.9325. THe price is back in that range. A move below would have traders looking back toward the 100 hour MA.Buyers have been more dominant today, but the…