Author: FX
S&P index erases early declinesThe S&P index has erased earlier declines and trades modestly higher. The index is currently up five points or 0.13% at 4086.68. The high price reached 4090.58. Recall that the swing highs from December stall that 4100.51 and 4100.96. Those levels will be eyed for a short-term bullish clues. Get above and stay above would be more positive for the index.The price dip yesterday and again today took the price of the S&P index below its 100 hour moving average Moving average A moving average is a statistical tool that is used to smooth out short-term…
Share: Emerging markets have continued to lag so far in 2023. But economists at UBS now see a much more favorable backdrop for emerging markets. Emerging markets well-positioned to be early beneficiaries of the three inflection points “Emerging markets are closely linked to the fortunes of the Chinese economy, which should rebound as the country opens up.” “Easing financial conditions and a weaker US Dollar have historically been linked with strong emerging market performance.” “Valuations are appealing on a relative basis and corporate fundamentals are turning the corner.” Source link
Share: The Mexican central bank (Banxico) surprisingly opted to raise its policy rate by 50 bps. The MXN reacted sharply appreciating. However, the Peso could still come under pressure if Banxico does not remain hawkish, economists at Commerzbank report. Banxico maintains pace and sends MXN soaring “Banxico surprised with a 50 bps rate hike to now 11%, sending the MXN soaring.” “Banxico is proving to be an inflation fighter after the departure of central bank member Gerardo Esquivel, who was considered a big dove, which should in principle help the Peso.” “The big question now is where the…
Share: UoM Consumer Confidence Index rose more than expected in February’s flash estimate. US Dollar Index clings to daily gains near 103.50. Consumer sentiment in the US improved in early February with the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index rising to 66.4 from 64.9 in January. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 65. “Year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December,” the UoM noted in its publication. “Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for…
Share: The USD/JPY 1-hour chart falling wedge was invalidated by a price violation on BoJ’s Ueda news. USD/JPY Price Analysis: Long-term is still downward biased unless it breaks resistance around 133.00. USD/JPY remains pressured by rumors that Kazuo Ueda will be appointed as the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, sending the USD/JPY diving to its weekly low of 129.79. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY recovered some ground, exchanging hands at around 130.90, slightly above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). From a daily chart perspective, the USD/JPY remains downward biased, but buyers reclaiming the 20-day EMA at 130.72 could…
Share: The Australian Dollar has been a solid performer in recent months and is up 11% from its October 2022 low. Economists at Wells Fargo believe this positive trend can continue and forecast AUD/USD at 0.7800 by mid-2024. Resilient Australian growth and favorable RBA monetary policy dynamics versus the Fed “Given our outlook for Australia to enjoy a reasonably steady expansion over time and avoid recession, our base case remains for some further monetary policy tightening before a pause in rate hikes.” “We believe resilient Australian growth and favorable RBA monetary policy dynamics versus the Fed are the…
Share: The Canadian Dollar was the third best performing currency in G10 in January. Economists at ING expect the USD/CAD pair to dip below 1.30 in the second quarter. Some silver linings from CAD after BoC pause “The BoC most likely hit the peak of its tightening cycle, as it brought rates to 4.5% and signalled more hikes are not on the cards for now. The dovish shift by the BoC was not a sudden move and had been largely priced in, which means that CAD can now potentially benefit from the fact that a lower peak rate…
For the 2nd consecutive month the Canada jobs report has surprised with a huge gain of 150K vs 15K estimate. That comes after a strong >100K report last month. The gains sent the USDCAD sharply to the downside and below the 200 hour MA which has stalled the fall over the last two trading days.The EURUSD is pressing the lows for the week and below a swing area.The USDJPY is reacting to the BOJ Governor rumblings but trying to hold the 200 hour MA on the downside now. Source link
Share: Gold has been virtually unable to recover from its setback. Economists at Commerzbank expect the yellow metal to struggle for the time being. Previously very optimistic investors more cautious “Gold lacks the strength to match the correction. The extent to which speculative investors are to blame for this, having previously topped up their net long positions noticeably, remains to be seen.” “The CFTC has still not published any data following the cyberattack. However, we have pointed out repeatedly that there is a lack of support from ETF investors with a more long-term investment horizon. This would probably…
Share: C3.ai stock lost 14% on Thursday. C3.ai still remains a major focus of AI investors. ChatGPT has brought renewed attention to artificial intelligence. C3.ai stock remains up more than 100% YTD. C3.ai (AI) stock is giving up more ground in Friday’s premarket, but do not blink too long. C3.ai is one of few pure plays among publically-owned artificial intelligence stocks and will be back in the spotlight shortly. The stock sold off more than 14% on Thursday as the broader market turned south, and these volatile gyrations should be expected. However, few other stock provide the enterprise focus of…