Author: FX

European Central Bank (ECB) official and Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn said during European trading hours on Wednesday that higher oil prices should not be the only factor to direct monetary policy decisions. Rehn added that the central bank needs to assess the scope of energy shocks.Additional commentsECB needs to assess whether the energy shock spreads to inflation expectations, wages and core inflation.It’s worth preparing for a protracted conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.If events turned out differently, it would be easier to adjust.Key factors are the strength and duration of the energy shock and any broader pass-through into…

When inflation is running hot, and the economy is weakening at the same time, what exactly is the Fed supposed to do about it? Raise interest rates and risk tipping workers into unemployment? Cut rates and risk letting prices spiral completely out of control? If your answer is “neither sounds great,” congratulations! You’ve just discovered why stagflation is the one word central bankers dread more than any other. Tuesday’s April CPI report made it official. Headline inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year — the highest since May 2023 — and rose 0.6% just in the month of April. Core inflation, which…

With the Fed frozen by inflation and the BOJ getting serious about rate hikes, USD/JPY is caught in the middle of a policy tug-of-war. Source link

The ADX DMI indicator for MT5 exists to solve exactly that problem. It doesn’t predict where price will go. What it does is tell traders whether a trend is actually in play — and that distinction alone can save a trading account from death by a thousand choppy trades. The ADX DMI indicator MT5 combines two separate but related tools into one, and understanding how each component behaves is what separates traders who use it well from those who don’t. What the ADX DMI Indicator Actually Is ADX stands for Average Directional Index. DMI stands for Directional Movement Index. Both…

CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimPrior +1.7%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%The monthly change itself also shows a 1% increase in headline inflation, leading to the annual estimate to cross back above the 2% mark in April. Of note, energy prices once again picked up in recording a 4.7% increase on the month after jumping up by 8.9% in March. That is largely driven by the prices of petroleum products (diesel, petrol and liquid fuel), which were up by 8.2% in April.As for the headline annual estimate, it is largely tied to the sharp acceleration in prices of energy…

Danske Research Team notes global equities slipped modestly, with the S&P500, Nasdaq and Russell2000 all lower. Semi-conductors in the S&P500 underperformed after a strong prior run, while defensive sectors such as healthcare and staples led gains. Asian equities and US and European futures turned mostly higher, suggesting limited follow-through selling.Global stocks see mild pullback”Global equities ended the day lower by 0.3% yesterday, after being down 1% at the lows.””For once, semi-conductors in the S&P500 were among the weakest performers closing 1.4% lower, after being down about 4.5% earlier in the day.””We will not overdo conclusions on such setback after an…

Oil prices slip on teetering Iran ceasefire as Trump heads to China Source link

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month over month in April 2026, pushing the annual inflation rate up to 3.8%. That’s the highest reading since May 2023! The annual figure not only topped the 3.7% forecast, but core inflation also beat expectations on both a monthly and annual basis, signaling that price pressures are no longer just an energy story. April marked the second straight month of sharp inflation gains after March’s 0.9% jump, when the first shock from the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran sent oil prices ripping higher. Recall that Tehran’s shutdown of the Strait of…

Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 Hormuz missile sites and retains 70% of its prewar missile stockpile, posing a continued threat to warships and oil tankers, US assessments show.Summary:US assessments reviewed by people with knowledge of the findings show Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York TimesThe restored sites give Iran the ability to deploy mobile launchers to alternative locations and, in some cases, to launch missiles directly from fixed launchpads within the facilitiesOnly three of the 33 missile…

The core logic isn’t magic. The indicator calculates support and resistance zones using a combination of recent swing highs and lows, price action clustering, and in most versions, a smoothing mechanism similar to a moving average applied to pivot structures. What separates it from a basic pivot point indicator is that the zones recalculate based on a rolling lookback period. As new candles form, old levels that price has moved away from get removed, and new ones appear where price is spending time. Think of it as the indicator constantly asking: “Where is price finding friction right now?” Some versions…