Author: FX

CPI Talking Points: Recommended by James Stanley Get Your Free USD Forecast While Friday’s NFP report was a mixed bag, the PMI report that followed was not. Services PMI printed at its lowest level since March of 2020 and in contractionary territory. This is sign of continued impact from the Fed’s rate hikes last year and with that data point coming in so far below expectations, (49.6 v/s 55 expected), and the response that followed, market participants are building hope that stacking signs of slowdown may compel the Fed into a less-hawkish position.Markets seemed to shrug off Powell’s re-commitment to…

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant//File Photo By Arathy Somasekhar HOUSTON (Reuters) – stocks built unexpectedly last week, the Energy Information Administration said, as refiners were slow to restore production after a cold freeze that shut operations.     Crude inventories rose by 19 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 6 to 439.6 million barrels. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 2.2 million-barrel drop. It was the largest weekly build since February 2021, and the third-largest…

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<p>The market is pricing a 76% chance of a 50 bps hike from the ECB on Feb 2. That's dipped from earlier this week.</p><p>In any case, the euro is having itself a nice day, rising 30 pips to 1.0765 and near a session high.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source link

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US Stock Market and US500 – 2023 Outlook The Fed’s monetary tightening in an effort to curb soaring inflation and the resultant recession risk have not been friendly to the stock market in 2022. The US500 has undergone its worst year in more than a decade, with the first double-digit percentage annual loss (-38.4%) since the Great Recession in 2008. According to the Conference Board, the US real GDP growth for the coming 2023 is predicted to be 0% (vs 1.5% in 2022). This is seen as a pessimistic outlook as the figure is much lower than the predicted figure…

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AUD/USD remains well within the striking distance of its highest level since late August. Economists at Société Générale believe that the pair could reach the mid-0.70s. Scope for bearish rate surprises is limited for now “The RBA is still dragging its feet and the monetary/fiscal policy mix isn’t helpful, but the rates market is only pricing another 75 bps of hikes from here, so scope for bearish rate surprises is limited for now.” “We dream of AUD/USD trading in the 0.80s but while that may be too much, the mid-0.70s are within reach.”   Source link

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When starting a new hobby or endeavor, it’s easy to get suckered into buying things that you think you need but eventually find that you don’t, at least not in the beginning. Jake, for example, bought the fanciest weight set and at least seven brands of protein shake after deciding to adopt a healthy lifestyle at the beginning of the year. Ditto for his friend, Ian, who bought half the electronics store when he decided to take up Twitch streaming. Both could’ve furthered their goals with much less investment, but chose to buy unnecessary items anyway because it’s what they…

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The Dollar continues to retreat on the back of Chair Powell’s speech & ahead of US CPI data this week Dollar The Dollar finds itself bouncing off a 7-month low midweek, on the back of an important speech by FED chair Jerome Powell. The speech failed to inspire bullish impetus, mainly because it lacked any clear direction for the US central bank’s next moves concerning its stance on interest rate decisions. The main takeaway from the comments made were centred mostly around complementing and doubling down on the FED’s moves in the past year in their fight against stubborn and…

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EUR/GBP ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTSECB continues to dance to the hawkish tune, providing a tailwind for the euro against a more subdued GBP.U.S. CPI may provide some impetus ahead of Friday’s key UK and EZ centric data.Breakout looming on daily EUR/GBP chart. Recommended by Warren Venketas Get Your Free EUR Forecast FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROPThe euro extended yesterday’s gains against the British pound through ECB officials beginning yesterday. The hawkish narrative was reinforced by one of the more aggressive officials in Isabel Schnabel while today’s addresses included the ECB’s Villeroy who stated the need for additional interest rate hikes in the coming…

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