Author: FX

The Strait of Hormuz dominated the May 4–8 trading week, whipsawing markets between war-premium surges and peace deal relief — with a blockbuster U.S. jobs report landing right in the middle. Source link

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that Taiwan’s April trade data showed slower export and import growth versus expectations, with the trade surplus easing to USD14.35bn. Semiconductor and machinery exports remained strong, while higher Oil prices started to lift import values. ING still expects robust trade momentum and sees upside risks to its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 8.2% YoY.Exports miss forecasts but momentum holds”Taiwan’s export growth slowed to 39.0% YoY in April, down from 61.8% YoY in March, and falling well short of market forecasts on the month.””One area where Taiwan is continuing…

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by front-loaded fiscal stimulus, seasonal festival spending and limited pass-through from higher Oil prices. The bank expects growth to ease as these one-off supports fade, keeps its 2026 GDP forecast at 5.2%, and now projects a wider 2026 fiscal deficit of 2.9% of GDP.Q1 strength seen as unsustainable”Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% y/y in Q1 (from 5.4% the previous quarter), the fastest pace since 2022.””Despite the strong Q1 headline print, growth remains government-driven; private-sector momentum remains modest given cautious business sentiment and subdued…

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending targets Capstone JV scaling to ~$700M in assets over 4 to 6 quarters Source link

Silver (XAG/USD) price advances more than 2.50% on Friday, set to end the week with gains of over 7% sponsored by US Dollar (USD) weakness and falling Oil prices. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $80.72, after bouncing off daily lows of $78.16.XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlookSilver is testing the weekly high reached on Thursday at $82.13, but so far has failed to clear it. Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but they must clear key overhead resistance.On the upside, the first key resistance is $80.50. Once cleared, the next areas of interest…

Markets:WTI crude oil down 7 cents to $94.76US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.36%Gold up $30 to $4716S&P 500 up 0.8%GBP leads, USD lagsThe tech optimism is at a fever pitch as the Nasdaq climbed for the sixth straight week, adding 30% in that time and another 5% this week. Chip names continued to soar as Micron gained 15% and Intel 14% among others. The enthusiasm for AI is grossly overshadowing any worries about oil prices or rate hikes.On oil prices, they finished the day flat after climbing earlier. A late WSJ report indicated progress on a 14-point one-page…

Wells Fargo Economics projects Brazil’s April IPCA inflation to rise 0.9% month-over-month and around 4.5% year-over-year, near or above the target band. Energy and food pressures are intensifying, while inflation expectations have risen. The Brazilian Central Bank is still seen cutting rates cautiously in June, but a pause in the easing cycle is becoming more likely.Energy and food drive inflation risks”We expect Brazil’s April IPCA to rise a sharp 0.9% month-over-month, pushing headline inflation to around or slightly above the top of the target band at 4.5% year-over-year.””Energy remains the key near‑term upside risk, with the Middle East conflict lingering…

On the day:S&P 500 +0.85%Nasdaq Comp +1.7%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.75%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%On the week:S&P 500 +2.3%Nasdaq Comp +4.5%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +1.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs in April versus the 55,000 expected—overshadowed geopolitical fears, keeping investors heavily invested in the ongoing tech boom. This was the sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since Oct 2024.AI infrastructure demand continues to fuel semiconductor stocks. Micron shares popped 10% today, while Qualcomm jumped 9%, logging its fourth consecutive day of gains. The broader semiconductor…

The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations:Talks could resume as early as next weekIran remains against transferring nuclear materialIran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the warThe US would ‘wind back’ its blockade during those 30 daysDetails remain unresolvedWe continue to wait for war news but the market seems to have moved on. The Nasdaq is up for the sixth straight week and higher by more than 5% this week. Today we have big gains across tech and the…

MUFG economists Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee outline a base case where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by end‑May eases pressures on Asian currencies. They see Asia growth softening near term but stabilizing in H2 2026, with inflation contained and most central banks keeping neutral‑accommodative stances. They also sketch an adverse scenario with broad Asia FX depreciation.Base and adverse scenarios for Asia FX”A base case, where the Iran war and the Hormuz disruption unwind approaching end of May, is our core case. Asia growth softens slightly in near term but stabilizes into 2H2026…