Author: FX

US Treasury yields rise across the curve on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note rising nearly one and a half basis points to 4.155% following the release of a strong jobs report in the US, which trimmed investors’ expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).Treasury yields edge higher as robust jobs data and hawkish Fed rhetoric cool expectations of aggressive easingThe US 10-year Treasury yield bounced off from around 4.125% after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy added 130K people to the workforce in January, above economists’ estimates of 70K, as revealed…

An interview yesterday on CNBC with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour laid bare the truth.He was grilled by Becky Quick about insider trading on the platform. Mansour highlighted how they investigate suspicious bets but he also seemed to struggle with the difference between the legal obligations that CEOs have in protecting market-moving information and the inability to govern whether dancers in the Super Bowl can disclose which songs Bad Bunny will play at the Super Bowl half-time show.Ultimately, he threw in the towel and said:”That’s fair game and that’s part of the risk in the market that people are buying into”So…

London built a balanced TPO map with value centred near the POC. The first New York retest should confirm whether ES migrates higher toward the upper range or rotates back into the lower structure.ES TPO desk report (Feb 11)London mid-session – New York transitionMacro overlay (kept tight, chart-first)The index tape is still trading like a “wait-and-see” market—headline sensitivity to rates/yields, selective earnings-driven dispersion, and a general hesitation to press risk hard ahead of key U.S. catalysts. In that backdrop, balanced profiles tend to behave like balance: rotation around value persists until New York proves acceptance outside the gates. Use the…

The dollar is weaker across the board today, extending losses from Monday with USD/JPY eyeing a third consecutive daily decline. It’s a bit of a mixed bag this week with precious metals taking a breather, while stocks and bond yields were dragged down by the softer US retail sales data yesterday here.In continuing with the more hectic US economic calendar this week, today will feature the biggest one yet in the labour market report.All eyes are on the jobs data and market players are waiting on the sidelines to play the reaction to that. It’s been the main anticipation all…

Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest intraday gains above the $5,050 level through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) drag the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week low and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. However, the underlying bullish sentiment might cap the upside for the safe-haven commodity. Bullish traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before positioning for any further gains.The US Census Bureau reported on…

The term refers to how the indicator handles bar data. Most arrow indicators calculate signals using the current bar’s close price, which keeps changing until the bar completes. These “repainting” indicators redraw their signals as new price data arrives, making historical charts look incredibly accurate while providing unreliable real-time signals. A true non-repainting indicator calculates signals based on completed bar data only. Once a bar closes and a signal appears, it stays there. Testing this on GBP/JPY, I’ve seen signals remain fixed through volatile Asian session whipsaws where repainting indicators would’ve flickered on and off three times. The technical difference…

ING sees the yen strengthening as Japan pairs looser fiscal policy with tighter BOJ settings while the Fed moves toward further easing. I’m a little wary of this, the current signalling out of the Fed seems to be on hold:Summary:ING sees scope for further yen recoveryTakaichi mandate supports fiscal expansionBOJ expected to hike at least once moreFed seen cutting twice this year158–160 USD/JPY flagged as intervention zoneThe Japanese yen may have further room to recover as a shift in Japan’s policy mix creates a more supportive backdrop for the currency, according to analysts at ING.In a research note, ING argues…

GBP/JPY looks ready to slip below an established consolidation! Will we finally see a breakout, or are buyers lining up to defend support one more time? Here’s what’s showing up on the 4-hour chart: GBP/JPY 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView The British pound has been on the back foot as cautious risk sentiment and fresh uncertainty around U.K. PM Starmer’s leadership cooled demand for Sterling. At the same time, renewed yen intervention threats from Japanese officials have given the yen a boost, pulling most yen crosses lower even after a weekend election result that would normally lean bearish for…

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, coming in flat month-over-month and missing market expectations for a 0.4% gain, according to data released Tuesday by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau. The flat reading followed November’s unrevised 0.6% increase and marked a sharp deceleration from the robust spending seen earlier in the holiday shopping season. October sales were also revised lower to a 0.2% drop, reinforcing signs that consumers are starting to feel stretched. The disappointing figures suggest consumer spending momentum weakened as the year drew to a close, potentially setting the economy on a slower growth path heading into 2026.…

Silver (XAG/USD) steadies following the previous day’s modest pullback from the $84.00 mark and trades with a mild positive bias during the Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and is currently placed below the $82.00 mark as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.From a technical perspective, Monday’s breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the all-time peak favors the XAG/USD bulls. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped below the Signal line while both remain above zero, and the contracting histogram…