Author: FX
Five central bank decisions. WTI breaking triple digits. The Fed’s most divided vote in over three decades. And a confirmed Bank of Japan intervention that erased Wednesday’s dollar rally in roughly the same time it took to build it. The week of April 27–May 1 delivered nearly every scenario condition the framework had modeled — and one it hadn’t. The framework’s WTI spike regime threshold held: the $99.43–$100 level flagged in Sunday’s cheat sheet and reinforced in Tuesday’s update was breached decisively on Wednesday when Trump rejected Iran’s Strait proposal outright and the EIA reported a 6.23-million-barrel draw. The FOMC outcome matched the update’s Scenario A description…
An arrow indicator is a technical analysis tool that displays directional arrows – typically green (buy) and red (sell) – on a MetaTrader 4 chart. Each arrow represents a calculated signal based on underlying formulas, which might include moving average crossovers, oscillator readings, support and resistance levels, or a combination of all three. Here’s the thing about arrow indicators: they aren’t some new type of analysis. They’re a visual wrapper around existing technical logic. A tool like the Super Arrow indicator, for example, aggregates data from multiple standard indicators and fires a signal only when several of them agree. Think…
Markets:S&P 500 up 0.3%Gold down $7 to $4615US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.37%WTI crude oil down $2.68 to $102.68USD leads, JPY lagsIt’s Friday, so there is the usual angst about Trump escalating the Middle East war. That led to some late selling in equities and some buying in oil but the tale of the tape shows that the bulls won. Stocks still finished at record highs and oil was lower. We learned the Iran presented a new offer late yesterday (around the time the market went parabolic) but Trump said that he didn’t like the new offer. Of…
Five central bank decisions, a confirmed FX intervention, oil breaking triple digits, and an FOMC vote split not seen in over three decades — the week of April 27–May 1 didn’t come to play. Markets spent Monday cautiously positioning before a calendar stacked with catalysts, and the FX complex spent the rest of the week reacting to the fallout. A deeply hawkish Fed drove the dollar to its best close on Wednesday. Japan’s Vice Finance Minister then delivered a “final warning” to yen speculators — and followed it with action — flipping the JPY from near the week’s worst to…
On the day:S&P 500 +0.3%Nasdaq Comp +0.9%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +0.5%Toronto TSX Comp -0.2%On the week:S&P 500 +0.9%Nasdaq Comp +1.1%DJIA +0.5%Russell 2000 +0.9%Toronto TSX Comp flatHere is a look at the heat map for the week: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link
AUD/USD holds to minimal gains of 0.10% late in the North American session, yet poised to finish the week up 0.84%. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 0.7200 as the ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern caps the Aussie on the downside.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, the AUD/USD trades near the top of a 100-pip consolidation range between 0.7100 and 0.7200, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting above its neutral level.On the upside, the first resistance for AUD/USD is the psychological 0.7250 level. If cleared,…
Semafor reports:President Donald Trump notified Hill leaders on Friday, the 60th day of the Iran war, that US hostilities with Tehran are over — for now — and thus don’t need congressional authorization.There is some confusion about what the War Powers Act as it says the president needs to seek authorization from Congress for a war longer than 60 days, which is today.Several Republican Senators warned that if the conflict continued beyond today, that Congress would need to authorize it. While Trump make the case that the war is over and the clock would restart, it doesn’t sound like members…
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, turns higher on Friday, recovering from earlier weakness, though it remains on track to close the week in negative territory.It has been a volatile week for the US Dollar, with price action driven by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, ongoing Middle East tensions, and renewed trade concerns. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 98.21, rebounding from a two-week low of 97.72 reached earlier in the day.Trade tensions resurfaced after US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on European…
USD/CAD edged higher by less than 0.1% on Friday, recovering from an early-session low near 1.3560 to trade around 1.3590. The pair has shed roughly 0.6% on the week after rolling over from the 1.3700 area mid-week, and momentum has appeared sluggish close to 1.3580 as a cluster of small-bodied candles points to indecision.The US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant drivers, keeping crude oil prices elevated and offering tailwinds to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend with both sides hardening their positions, and the US naval blockade of…
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1730 level on Friday’s late American session, trimming almost all its intraday gains, after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened to raise the tariff rate on European Union (EU) cars and trucks from 15% to 25% and said he isn’t happy with the latest proposal sent by Iran to end the war.Iran passed a peace talks offer through Pakistan to try and strike a deal with the US, though the details and demands from Tehran remain unknown. US President Trump claimed that “we made strides in talks with Iran, but I’m not…