Author: FX
Markets navigated a historic four-way Fed dissent and Trump’s indefinite Iran blockade extension Wednesday, with WTI topping $104 and the dollar closing as the strongest major currency. Source link
The oil market is in a bit of a panic today. The main catalyst is a Politico report saying:White House officials huddled with oil industry executives Tuesday to discuss steps to tamp down the surge in energy prices in the event the U.S. keeps its blockade of Iranian ships in place for months.There are also increasing reports about US military activity in the region and a report saying the US had planed for a short wave of strikes. Weighing against that is a report that a US aircraft carrier has left the region.The market appears to be concluding that the…
At the post-meeting press conference, Jerome Powell outlined the reasoning behind the decision to leave interest rates unchanged after the March meeting and fielded questions from reporters on the outcome.Powell’s press conference highlightsInflation remains elevated, in part reflecting increases in energy prices.The current policy stance is appropriate and is promoting progress towards our goals.Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.We remain attentive to risks on both sides of our mandate.Consumer spending remains resilient.The unemployment rate has changed little.Slower job growth reflects slower labour force growth.Labour demand has also softened clearly.We see PCE inflation at 3.5% in March, with…
Two Jewish men stabbed in London, police treat attack as terrorism Source link
So the United Arab Emirates announced it’s leaving OPEC. After nearly 60 years of membership, Abu Dhabi looked at the cartel it helped build and basically said, “It’s not you, it’s me.” Then it packed its bags. The official statement cited the UAE’s “long-term strategic and economic vision.” Which is diplomatic speak for “we are SO done here.” Effective May 1, 2026, the UAE is out.✌️ This is a big deal. But a lot of the initial headlines are missing the full picture. Let’s actually understand what happened. Source link
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Citing a White House official, Reuters reported on Wednesday that United States (US) President Donald Trump met with top officials from Chevron and other major energy companies to discuss global Oil markets amid the Middle East conflict.According to the official, Trump spoke to Oil companies about the steps to continue the Iran blockade for months if needed.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) Index edged higher with the immediate reaction to this headline and was last seen trading at 98.85, rising 0.26% on the day. Source link
The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with no change to the statement. The base case is that this is going to be a non-event given the uncertainty around the Middle East situation and Powell’s final press conference.The US data since the last FOMC meeting in March has been remarkably strong suggesting underlying economic resilience and even acceleration despite a more pessimistic future outlook caused by the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure.The Fed eased monetary policy in the second half of 2025 mainly due to a weakening labour market on worries…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for its fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, requesting more time to assess the impact on inflation and economic growth from the US-Iran war. A shift in long-term inflation expectations emerging from higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict could trigger the next big reaction in the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The BoC left its monetary policy unchanged at its previous meeting in March and removed forward guidance references that the current rate is appropriate. The bank’s statement noted that economic growth had…
The MT5 Linear Regression Indicator is a trend-following technical analysis tool available on the MetaTrader 5 platform. It draws a straight line that best fits price data over a selected period using linear regression math. In simple terms, it calculates the average direction of price over “X” number of candles. If the line slopes upward, the short-term trend is bullish. If it slopes downward, sellers are in control. Unlike a simple moving average, which smooths past prices, linear regression finds the statistical best-fit line through the data. That means it reacts differently to sharp spikes or gradual trends. Many traders…