Author: FX

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that USD/JPY is consolidating just below a multi-decade high as Japan’s private sector growth strengthens and Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks below Bank of Japan (BoJ) forecasts. Markets expect the BoJ to hold at 1.00% next week, with around 60 bps of tightening priced over twelve months. This leaves scope for higher BoJ rate expectations, seen as supportive for Japanese Yen (JPY).BoJ outlook and growth pulse support JPY”USD/JPY is consolidating just under a multi-decade high. Japan private sector growth strengthens to five-month high in July, supporting the BoJ’s hawkish bias. The composite PMI…

The European Central Bank kept its deposit facility rate (the rate the ECB pays commercial banks for overnight deposits, which anchors borrowing costs across the eurozone) at 2.25% on Thursday. Nobody was surprised. Markets had priced in a greater than 99% probability that the ECB would leave rates unchanged. Yet EUR/USD still slipped 0.28% to 1.1378 that day. That highlights one of the most important things to understand about ECB meetings. The rate decision usually isn’t the main story. The press conference is. Why Does the Press Conference Move the Market More Than the Rate? By the time a central…

When you force yourself to identify the emotions behind bad trading decisions, you may spot negative patterns and start correcting them. Source link

Euro area business activity rises for first time in four months as demand conditions rebound !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz !”#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz Source link

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Russia’s central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25%, despite political and economic pressure for a cut. Surging inflation expectations, higher Oil and commodity prices, and accelerating Consumer Price Index (CPI) argue against easing. Ghose sees today’s decision as having little impact on the managed USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates in the near term.High inflation blocks rate cut case”Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision later today: the majority consensus now expects an unchanged key rate of 14.25%, although there is a healthy faction dissenting in favour of another “token” 25bp rate cut.””We…

Tim Morris is a work from home dad, home-based forex trader, writer and blogger by passion. He likes to research and share the latest forex trading strategies and forex indicators on ForexMT4Indicators.com. His passion is to let everyone to be able to learn and download different types of forex trading strategies and mt4/mt5 indicators at ForexMT4Indicators.com Source link

“Smart money” is capital controlled by large, informed institutions — banks, hedge funds, asset managers and pension funds — whose orders are big enough to move price, as opposed to “dumb money” retail flow. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is a retail trading framework that tries to read those institutional footprints through market structure, order blocks, fair value gaps and liquidity.That definition matters because the term is used two very different ways. One is an honest description of who actually holds size in a market. The other is a marketing hook — the idea that “smart money” is personally hunting your…

A break of structure (BOS) happens when price breaks a swing point in the direction of the existing trend, confirming continuation. A change of character (CHoCH) is the first break against that trend, warning of a possible reversal. The difference is direction: a BOS extends the move, a CHoCH questions it.What BOS and CHoCH actually meanBOS and CHoCH are the two ways smart money concepts (SMC) traders label a break in market structure. Both describe the same event — price closing beyond a prior swing point — but they mean opposite things depending on which way that break runs relative…

An order block is the last opposing candle before a strong, impulsive move that breaks market structure. A bullish order block is the last down candle before a sharp rally; a bearish order block is the last up candle before a sharp sell-off. It marks a price zone where large institutional orders are presumed to sit.That capsule is the whole idea in two sentences, but order blocks are widely misunderstood and heavily over-sold online. This guide explains the precise mechanics, how to mark a valid one, how to trade a retest with a concrete worked example, and — just as…

A liquidity sweep is when price pushes briefly beyond an obvious level where stop orders cluster — just above equal highs or a swing high, or just below equal lows or a swing low — triggers those resting orders, then sharply reverses. The reversal is what confirms it. A clean break that keeps going is a breakout, not a sweep.That distinction matters more than any other idea in this article. Traders lose money chasing “sweeps” that were actually genuine breakouts, and they lose money fading breakouts they mistook for sweeps. The mechanics are simple; the discretion required to read them…