Author: FX
Markets:Gold down $91 to $4079WTI crude oil up $1.23 to $59.97US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.15%S&P 500 flatBitcoin down $3896 to $94,906NZD leads, CHF lagsImplied odds of a Fed cut in December were at 66% early this week but fell yesterday and continued to slide today. They’re now at just 40% despite no real change in Fed commentary. There are still some vociferous hawks and doves but nothing has really changed on communication. It’s like the market finally went back and listened to what Powell said on October 30.In any case, it was another choppy day. US equity…
Berkshire Hathaway is out with its latest 13F filing and it doesn’t show it show any big deployments of the +$340 billion that Warren Buffett’s firm holds in cash.Some notable highlights:Apple holdings cut by 14.9% (still worth $65 billion)Adds 17.8m shares of Alphabet (Google) worth $4.9 billion at today’s pricesEliminates holdings of D.R. HortonCuts stake in Verisign by 32.4%Cuts stake in Bank of America by 6.1%Raises stake in Dominos Pizza by 13.2%Buffett has previously lamented not investing in Google.”We missed it,” the famed investor and Berkshire boss told CNBC in May 2017. “I should have got Google,” he told the…
US equity markets slumped hard at the open but recovered to flat within 90 minutes of the open. From there some strong momentum and FOMO in tech names took over and there were strong gains. However late in the day, the enthusiasm fizzed and most markets closed near flat, which also left them close to flat on the week.On the day:S&P 500 flatNasdaq Comp +0.1%DJIA -0.6%Russell 2000 +0.3%Toronto TSX Comp +0.3%Notably, today was the first day since April 7th that the Nasdaq traded down at least 1.5% intraday but finished the day positive.On the week:S&P 500 +0.1%Nasdaq Comp -0.5%DJIA +0.3%Russell…
Risk assets bounced and so did bitcoin but it’s giving it back. Bitcoin is now at a fresh low since May and perilously close to breaking the May low.It’s basically flat year-over-year and down sharply since early October when it hit a record $126K.Bitcoin dailyIf you zoom out on the weekly chart, there is still a very since uptrend from the 2023 low at $15,556 but we’re close to the bottom of that trendline.bitcoin weeklyIt’s starting to feel like bitcoin is yesterday news meme. There is so much enthusiasm for AI and even quantum computing and that’s where all the…
If you’re a gold trade, there is an article out today that highlights some very important points. It cites a handful of different analysts but the main point is that no one knows how much gold central banks are buying because any reporting on it is voluntary and they don’t want to be front run.China is reporting about 2 tonnes per month of buying but Soc Gen says purchases could be 250 tonnes this yearUnlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’tPeople are trying to spot patterns in orders for 400oz gold barsChinese reserves could…
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Oil has been batted around this week as the market tries to get a sense of what’s happening to Russian barrels and with the overall risk mood in markets. It was beaten up on Wednesday in a relatively calm day and then it rebounded yesterday and today despite the risk rout. Some of that suggests that oil is being used as a hedge and that helps to explain the heavy short interest. As books were pared down yesterday, the shorts were covered.Zooming out, the weekly chart shows that the volatility of the past three weeks is all still within the…
We’ve got a jobs report on the economic calendar.The BLS announced that it will release the Sept 2025 employment report on November 20, that’s next Thursday at 8:30 am ET.It’s ancient history at this point but it’s a start. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link
Logan has said this before but it’s notable that she will be a voter next year.Says she would need to see convincing evidence of inflation coming down or jobs market worsening to support December rate cutOther regional voters are:Hammack (hawk)Kashkari (not a hawk but not as dovish as before)Paulson (said she favors gradual cuts)I can’t see any of them supporting a December cut except Kashkari but they won’t have votes. However if we do get a cut in December, I certainly can’t see any of them supporting a January cut, barring a change in the data. That starts to align…
Federal Reserve (Fed) governor Stephen Miran spoke at a Fox Business interview on Friday, stating that monetary policy should be forward-looking and that wage gains have moderated.Key takeawaysThe Fed buying gold is not consistent with its mandate.The change in border policy is disinflationary.Monetary policy should be forward-looking.It’s a mistake to let the job market get softer. Wage gains have moderated.Shelter inflation points to weakening price pressures.It’s a mistake to make policy on backward-looking data. The data we’ve gotten since September has been dovish.The data should make the Fed more dovish, not less.Data supports rate cuts.” US Dollar Price Today The…