Author: FX

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength. While upside risks have increased, MUFG also flags growing signs of Rupiah undervaluation and potential constraints from Bank Indonesia’s policy response.Domestic confidence shock drives USD/IDR”USD/IDR has reached fresh all-time highs around 17,300 level. This overshoots our prior near-term stabilisation view around 17,000. This move appears less about global USD strength and more about a domestic confidence shock, with markets likely reacting to heightened fiscal uncertainty.””In…

Silver (XAG/USD) price edges up over 0.50% during Friday’s session, after bouncing off a daily low of $73.95. Speculation about a resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is cheered by investors, which pushed US equities higher in tandem with the precious metals segment. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $75.83,XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlookTechnically, Silver is poised to consolidate within the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both at $75.64. Worth noting that since bottoming at around $61.02 on March 23, the white metal continued to record higher lows, an indication that the uptrend…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the central bank of Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 25bp hike to 4.5% and guidance that further increases are possible as inflation forecasts are revised higher and second-round effects emerge. While this reduces the risk of BSP falling behind the curve and is relatively supportive for Philippine Peso (PHP), the Peso remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks and uncertain US‑Iran ceasefire dynamics.Higher rates versus energy vulnerability”More hikes not ruled out. BSP hiked policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% at its last MPC meeting (23 Apr). The Board now sees a…

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower while the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing higher, and at record levels.A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -79.61 points or -0.16% at 49230.71S&P +56.68 points or 0.80% at 7165.08NASDAQ index up 398.09 points or 1.63% at 24836.60The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 11.90 points or 0.43% at 2787.00.For the trading week, the Dow industrial average also fell while the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher: Dow industrial average fell -0.44%S&P index rose 0.55%NASDAQ index rose 1.50%The winners were clearly dominated by…

There’s a noticeable amount of positioning and repositioning ahead of the weekend, with headlines offering a mixed and at times conflicting picture. The market is reacting to uncertainty around potential diplomatic developments with a tilt toward confidence, but clarity and certainty remains limited for now. A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran, and Pakistan will only be considered after Pakistan first meets with Iran’s Araghchi A meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday Witkoff and Kushner, meanwhile, are expected to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday Iran’s foreign ministry says its foreign minister will…

TD Securities strategists, including Andrew Kelvin and colleagues, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through the April meeting and likely for the rest of 2026. They see the Bank striking a more balanced but still cautious tone, emphasizing two-sided growth risks from higher Oil prices and USMCA renegotiation while looking through near-term inflation spikes.BoC seen on extended hold with neutral tone”We look for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% as the policy statement strikes another cautious tone. Higher energy prices will drive a sharp upgrade to the Bank’s inflation forecast in…

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super Thursday” featuring the BOE and ECB alongside U.S. GDP and Core PCE. Inflation readings out of Australia and growth data globally add another layer, meaning rates, yields, and FX volatility could be elevated throughout the week.Monday (April 27)BOJ Policy Rate Decision: No change expectedBOJ Monetary…

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April meeting, maintaining its vigilant stance. Koopman notes weaker domestic demand, already restrictive policy and lower-than-expected energy prices, which may slightly reduce near-term inflation forecasts, while still anticipating one additional rate hike rather than a full renewed hiking cycle.BoE seen on hold with cautious bias”With markets having stabilised in recent weeks, we expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the April meeting and to reiterate the vigilant stance set out in March.””Even…

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near the 98.50 price zone and continues drifting lower from recent highs as markets unwind part of the recent US Dollar (USD) rally despite still strong United States (US) data and ongoing Middle East tensions. Profit-taking into the weekend, alongside a modest pullback in US yields, is weighing on the Greenback even as Oil prices remain elevated above $90 this week, keeping inflation concerns alive.Investors are already positioning for next week’s key central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of England…

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.: Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion Lift real wages: Focus on improving income for the bottom 50% of earners Reassert U.S. dominance in key sectors: Chips, AI, and energy seen as critical to future prosperity China strategy = “de-risk, not decouple” (maintain trade but reduce dependency) Targeted independence: Critical minerals, medicines, and semiconductors prioritized for domestic resilience…