Author: FX

SummaryJapan plans to assume a 3% interest rate on bond expenses in its FY26 budgetThe assumption reflects rising JGB yields and BOJ policy normalisationIt marks the highest budgeted rate in roughly two decadesHigher debt-servicing costs could constrain fiscal flexibilityThe move signals a more realistic acceptance of a higher-rate environment-Japan’s government is reportedly planning to budget for a ~3% interest rate assumption on its long-term government bond expenses in the FY2026 budget, the highest assumed rate in about two decades. The news dribbled out overnight and its getting a rerun in markets here in Asia. This rate assumption is used when…

NZD/JPY has closed beyond its typical recent range, indicating it may have moved too far, too fast. This development comes after a steady multi-week climb from the mid‑80s into the low‑90s. Traders watching for signs of momentum fatigue or a pullback may find this breach of the upper Bollinger Band particularly noteworthy. What MarketMilk Has Detected NZD/JPY has closed at 91.242500, slightly above the 20‑period upper Bollinger Band, which currently sits near 91.241696. This follows a prior close at 90.962500, when the upper band was around 91.283627, showing that price has now “caught up” to and nudged through the band…

The oil folks seem to have packed it in for the year, this via a telegram channel:–Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -2.4 mn barrelsDistillates +0.4 mn bblsGasoline +1.1 mn—This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official government inventory report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from…

It’s a light calendar ahead for Asia, except for the Bank of Japan minutes. The caveat is, of course, that the minutes are those from the October 2025 meeting, which was a place holder at best. The other notable event is that its not Christmas Day. SummaryBOJ October minutes are due but pre-date December’s rate hikeOctober meeting offered little new guidance at the timeDecember hike marked a clearer step toward policy normalisationYen initially weakened post-hike, then rebounded on official rhetoricMarkets remain focused on follow-through, not backward-looking minutesMinutes from the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting are due for release today,…

When I look at Build-A-Bear Workshop right now, what immediately stands out to me is the technicals. The stock is currently breaking out of a downsloping trendline, which is something I always pay close attention to when evaluating potential upside opportunities. From a market perspective, this is the type of technical development that often signals a shift in momentum, especially when it occurs ahead of a seasonally strong period.Build-A-Bear Workshop (NYSE: BBW) is typically a hot stock around the holidays, and this December is no different. Since its earnings earlier this month, the stock has rallied more than 25% from…

Where is bitcoin headed in 2026? If you’re unsure, you’re not alone. The market is throwing off mixed signals right now. But 2026 could be bitcoin’s most pivotal year yet. Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have transformed the market. Regulations will either provide clarity or chaos. And Fed policy remains a major variable. Bitcoin could take radically different paths through 2026. Anything from deep corrections that test conviction, to explosive breakouts that reward long‑term holders, to a choppy middle ground that grinds down everyone’s patience. This outlook gives you a framework to navigate 2026 regardless…

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. Advisory warning: investingLive is not an investment advisor, investingLive provides references and…

WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett Hassett:GDP is a great Christmas present for the American peopleTrump trade agenda is workingAI boom is being seen in the dataRegardless of job AI is impacting their job.Will see employment change back in the 100K -150K range if GDP stays in a 4% rangeConsumer sentiment is uncorrelated with the hard economic data.Prices are down and income is up that’s why we have such strong growth numbers.People are very optimistic about their income growth. The Fed is way behind the curve in lowering rates.We have reduced the deficit by 600 billion year-over-year.We will be finalizing a…

The Euro (EUR) holds steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as traders digest a mixed slate of US economic data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1773, retreating after touching an intraday high near 1.1802.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which had been postponed due to the recent government shutdown. The report showed the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 4.3% in Q3, stronger than both the previous estimate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.3%.The GDP Price Index rose 3.7% in Q3,…

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading around $684, hovering precariously near its 20-day moving average after a volatile November selloff that rattled bulls and raised questions about the sustainability of 2025’s impressive rally. But now the burning question is: Will SPY reclaim its uptrend and push toward new highs above $690, or is this consolidation the calm before another leg down toward the 50-day EMA? S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Daily Chart SPY’s trend remains bullish but is in a maturing, grinding advance with momentum fading and price vulnerable to a deeper mean‑reversion toward the 50‑ or even 200‑day EMA…